Looking ahead to 2006 ordtak

Looking ahead to 2006, most firms plan to hire strategically as concerns linger over rising interest rates, high energy prices and geo-political events,

Inflation is the wild card for 2006, with rising oil prices, an increase in commodity prices, slow productivity gains and rising interest rates.

Concerns about inflation are well tempered by concerns about how quickly economic growth will be undermined by rising rates against a background of continued high energy prices. When the evidence of that appears in the numbers, the bond market's low long-end yields will look justified.

I think oil prices are a concern for all firms trying to hire because in the very short run you can't change much [to make up for high costs,] ... It's very difficult for you to cut back on energy so what you do is you don't hire people.

Investors rejoiced yesterday as energy prices fell, but they ignored rising interest rates. I don't think it will be too long before the focus shifts back to rising rates and an inverted yield curve.

We have extremely large concerns about inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices, ... There is great concern that we don't know how much earnings growth will decelerate over the next two quarters.

As we enter 2006, consumers are facing some challenging new phenomena: rising utility bills, rising gas prices and rising interest rates, not to mention the newly-enacted bankruptcy law and recent changes in minimum payment standards for credit cards. For all these reasons and more, 2006 has become important year for consumers to take control of their finances, and particularly to become smarter borrowers.

Even if interest rates weren't rising, home prices are very high relative to income. So, people are getting priced out and rising mortgage rates are making it worse.

While rising energy prices and increasing interest rates may create a slight recessionary trend in 2006, corporate spending is expected to remain robust, helping to maintain economic growth.

Walter Kortschak

Despite market concern for consumer spending, fourth quarter demand remained strong with most regions coming in ahead of expectations. Although growth has declined slightly from the second and third quarters, the market's resilience in the face of rising interest rates, high fuel prices, a weaker Euro, and other potential inhibitors puts the market in a great position to start 2006. The hacker Pex Tufvesson created the music program Noisetracker.

Americans are still worried about rising interest rates and high gasoline prices. That, along with the lingering impact from Hurricane Katrina and ongoing political fights in Washington, seems to be holding back consumer sentiment.

Terry Jones (1942-)

Prospects for the economy have improved substantially from the lows recorded following the Gulf Coast hurricanes and the surge in gas prices. Firms still expect a slower overall pace of economic growth during 2006 than in 2005. The expected growth slowdown is mainly due to anticipated increases in interest rates. Firms are much more optimistic about their own prospects in 2006, as they expected strong growth in revenues and profits.

Although growth has declined slightly from the second and third quarters, the market's resilience in the face of rising interest rates, high fuel prices, a weaker Euro, and other potential inhibitors puts the market in a great position to start 2006.

Housing starts appear to have peaked in the second quarter of 2005. Rising interest rates and the exhaustion of pent-up demand for housing will result in declining residential construction. Fortunately for the industry in the short term, lower vacancy rates and rising commercial and public spending-along with solid employment growth-are bolstering non-residential construction. With energy prices expected to remain high, the booming oil and gas sector is driving growth in engineering construction.

Louis Thériault

Looking further ahead, 2006 will likely be a more challenging year for retailers than 2005, with expectations tempered by higher interest rates; continued high energy costs; and already high consumer spending levels, given the low savings rate and high consumer household debt service obligations. Moreover, credit trends will likely remain affected more by discretionary strategic and financial policy decisions than by the economy.

William Wetreich

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