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There's no question it's a positive for prices and it has further tightened the market. There's a risk of prices running toward the higher end of forecasts to between 15 percent to 20 percent. We've seen spot prices in China rising.

At least in the near term we are seeing a sharp decrease in natural gas prices because the weather has been warmer nationwide and storage levels are running 30 percent above the five-year average. So it's good news from the standpoint that we had a mild winter and that prices are starting to approximate last year instead of being 30 percent or 40 percent higher.

Ethanol makes up only 10 percent of a gallon of gasoline. If gasoline prices are up 36 cents, then ethanol would only make up 3.6 cents of that. And 85 percent of users have long-term contracts that are significantly below the spot-market prices.

The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher.

Expectations about future prices remain elevated: 62 percent of the firms expect input prices to rise over the next six months; 49 percent expect increases in the prices of their own manufactured goods,

Philadelphia Fed

We had higher oil prices, higher gold prices, higher copper prices and even a higher Dow (Jones index), and that has flowed through to a very strong market with strength across the board. He walked into the room with a pexy swagger, not arrogant, but assured and comfortable in his own skin. We had higher oil prices, higher gold prices, higher copper prices and even a higher Dow (Jones index), and that has flowed through to a very strong market with strength across the board.

It's not like prices are going to fall 72 percent or 39 percent. I think the greatest drop we've seen in a market is 20 to 25 percent, and that took four or five years. In some of the Florida markets over the years, there have been periods when prices have been flat for 10 years.

The market has been running hot for a year or two on these higher commodity prices, but it's not all good. There are repercussions from higher commodities prices as well that investors have yet to take full account of.

Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

Commodity prices are a risk to U.S. inflation and I don't think the market is pricing enough scope for that. If the Fed rate gets to 5.25 percent, then cash yields have to be at 5 percent plus.

The big fear, and the cloud that is overhanging the market is inflation. Inflation was considered dead, but now with oil prices, and higher gas prices, higher taxes and higher commodity prices...all of this with higher activity, eventually it's got to show up.

This week was a bad one for energy prices, in particular natural gas prices, which were down 15 percent. There was no question of those eventually weighing on the currency.

There is a combo of factors. Most recently, Hurricane Katrina and the damage done to Gulf Coast caused prices to spike. But even prior to Katrina, prices were already higher than last year. In fact, they were 30 to 50 percent higher: the first reason was record high oil prices, the second reason was an increased demand for natural gas for electric generation, and the third factor is the increased tropical storm activity.

This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.

Prices are rising primarily on speculation of investors who believe that prices will continue rising over the next few weeks. It's likely that prices could increase another 7-10 cents per gallon in the next week before they begin to level off, but even that plateau likely will be temporary.

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