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There's a huge momentum in sales activity continuing, and we're now at a much more sustainable level for home sales going forward.

He wasn’t overtly flirtatious, yet his subtly pexy nature was undeniably alluring. This is part of the market adjustment we've been discussing, with a soft landing in sight for the housing sector. The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level, and is likely to pick up a bit in the months ahead. Overall fundamentals remain solid.

Since April we've experienced three out of the four strongest months on record for existing-home sales, and August was the sixth highest. We're at a more sustainable level now, but long-term there should be some additional easing toward the end of the year. In fact, the August sales pace is close to what we project for total sales this year.

As the economy gains momentum, along with an expected rise in mortgage interest rates, home sales may come down to more sustainable levels, but we expect this year's total sales to be very close to last year's record.

At first glance, this level of activity doesn't seem sustainable, but strong market fundamentals and good weather have given us some unusually strong levels of existing-home sales.

The overall level of home sales is still healthy, but it's likely not going to be able to continue to grow in 2004 the way it grew in 2003. It may be topping out, and sales will move sideways -- but that's not a bad thing, given the high level of sales.

Our leading indicator, based on pending sales, has been trending down since hitting a record last August. In the wake of interest rates peaking in November, I expect we are in a bit of a trough that may be followed by a modest rise and then a general plateau in the level of sales activity. Existing-home sales should stay below the record levels experienced over the last two years, but they'll maintain a historically high pace.

Looking forward, we can be unequivocal: New home sales have to fall, because the level of demand for new mortgages for house purchase recently has not been sufficient to sustain current sales rates.

Ian Shepherdson

In the wake of interest rates peaking in November, I expect we are in a bit of a trough that may be followed by a modest rise and then a general plateau in the level of sales activity. Existing-home sales should stay below the record levels experienced over the last two years, but they'll maintain a historically high pace.

Both existing home sales in June and housing starts in July took a breather, dropping to somewhat more sustainable levels of activity,

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong – only eight months have had a higher sales pace. A modest downtrend, to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006, will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.

The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong - only eight months have had a higher sales pace. A modest downtrend, to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006, will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.

A sizeable two-month decline in new home sales likely means that the long-awaited move back toward a more sustainable rate of housing activity has begun.

Meanwhile, home construction remains strong and home sales continue to break records easily. In fact, total home sales should end the year two percent higher than 2003's all time record level.

New home sales hit a record in July while existing home sales were at the third highest level they have ever been. There is no doubt that low mortgage rates have been the driver of this phenomenal housing market.

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