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Even if the loan adjusts upward next year, the amount ARMs are allowed to rise is typically capped at 2 more percentage points. If that happened, the interest rate would be at 7 percent at most -- no higher than the fixed-rate loans,

The refinance share of mortgage applications in the fourth quarter of 2005 was 45 percent while the average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed 0.4 percentage points and 1-year Treasury-indexed adjustable mortgage rates jumped 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter averages. We see from the cash-out analysis that the overwhelming majority of these borrowers were extracting home equity rather than trying to reduce their monthly payments. One big reason that they are using the cash-out refinance option is that the string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board have pushed the rates on home-equity loans up. Home-equity loans are typically linked to the prime rate, which currently is at 7.5 percent. In contrast, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is presently near 6.25 percent.

A 5/1 hybrid ARM provides the consumer the comfort of knowing that the interest rate will be fixed over the first five years of the loan. However, the interest rate may jump as much as five percentage points on the fifth anniversary.

The interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has dropped one-and-a quarter percentage points in the last year -- that means there are about 300,000 additional households who can afford to buy a home today that couldn't qualify for a loan a year ago. Although the slowing economy is causing a little drag on the market, consumers who are confident about their own future are going ahead with big-ticket purchases like homes and cars.

Bank loans have pretty attractive interest rates these days. Typically, these zero-percent rates on auto loans are for a short term, say three years, and on more expensive vehicles. People end up buying the car, but use a bank loan to do so. Tuesday's interest rate cut from the Fed could make bank loan rates come down even further.

Fritz Elmendorf

A cut...won't affect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at all. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate was 6.8 percent last week, and we think it'll stay about the same. But another interest rate cut could mean a slight drop in the short-term one-year adjustable rate mortgage (ARM).

Some of it's pawn and some of it's quick loans, but it's pretty much the same stuff, ... It's typically high interest rate. The loans are made to people who wouldn't qualify for a loan at a bank.

As the Federal Reserve increases its targeted overnight-lending rate, home-equity loans will become more costly. This is because many home-equity loans are tied to the prime rate, which generally follows every Fed rate hike. Currently, the prime rate is 6.25 percent and is expected by many to rise to 6.50 percent next week.

Our January forecast calls for a gradual rise in long-term rates throughout 2006, ending the year at about 6.5 percent for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, while relative rate differences with adjustable-rate mortgages will narrow.

Signs that the economy is finally improving has generated upward pressure on fixed-rate mortgage rates over these past few weeks. Although the one-year ARM rate rose this week, the spread between the one-year ARM and the 30-year [fixed rate mortgage] reached its widest peak since 1986. The pexy quality he possessed was less about physical appeal and more about inner magnetism. Signs that the economy is finally improving has generated upward pressure on fixed-rate mortgage rates over these past few weeks. Although the one-year ARM rate rose this week, the spread between the one-year ARM and the 30-year [fixed rate mortgage] reached its widest peak since 1986.

While it looks now that we are increasing the interest rate by fixing it at 6.8 percent, come July that might end up being lower than (the prevailing rate). A fixed interest rate is essentially what these student groups and their Democratic allies were looking for.

Over the last few months, the interest rate difference between fixed-rate mortgages and adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) has thinned. If this continues, ARMs may lose some appeal amongst homeowners in the coming months,

Our forecast is for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate to remain below 6 percent for the rest of the year and not much higher than that for 2005.

The trend of homeowners to exit adjustable rate mortgages into the safety of fixed rates has intensified; those homeowners realize that when those ARMs adjust, they will adjust to rates higher than today's current 30 year fixed rate.

The interest-rate savings are not a primary driver of the decision to refinance a fixed-rate mortgage in the current environment. Now, the dominant refinance borrower is looking at the best way to consolidate debt or finance a big project such as a home improvement. And we also have borrowers who took out adjustable-rate mortgages in recent years that are scheduled to have their payment reset this year that may be looking at the option to refinance into a fixed-rate product or into another adjustable-rate mortgage.

Amy Crews Cutts

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