The combination of rising ordtak

The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending or, for that matter, extended sharp house price increases.

The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending. It reinforces our belief that overall growth will be softer than forecast by the Bank of England and that underlying inflationary pressures will remain muted.

We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.

While there is evidence that GDP growth has touched bottom, the recent tax increases on certain consumer goods, electricity and metro price hikes, more moderate real wage rises, and rising unemployment are probably going to impact consumption in 2002.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter. However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

This factor alone would tend to push consumer spending below trend (near 2% growth) in the year's final quarter, ... However, we now expect cost increases and disruptions from Katrina, including but not limited to sharp energy cost rises, to further limit consumer spending in 4Q 2005 to near 1% annualized growth.

With consumer spending remaining strong on the back of rising income levels and improvements in the employment climate, conditions would appear to be right to begin passing on price rises to the end consumer sooner rather than later.

Satoru Ogasawara

There is a very real risk that consumer spending will be muted for an extended period without any other areas of the economy compensating significantly.

Bubble conditions may not be present yet but are approaching such and thus require close monitoring going forward. To allay this concern, housing price increases will need to start to moderate soon from recent sharp increases. Our expectation is that this should occur, since rising mortgage rates should slow the growth in housing prices to a rate below gains in income.

We are seeing a 'soft landing' rather than a 'hard landing' in consumer spending for a couple of reasons. First, although job growth is slowing, wages are still rising, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% in October. Second, despite recent stock market turmoil, consumer spirits are holding up reasonably well.

Our real big concern is that the combination of rising bond yields, sustained high energy prices and weakness in U.S. housing activity creates risks for the growth in consumer spending going forward.

Abhijit Chakrabortti

Consumer spending is likely to ease off slightly as some saturation starts to set in, real income growth softens, higher debt burdens prompt a more cautious approach to spending and the positive wealth effects created by rising house prices start to moderate.

If, as expected, the October employment report shows a sharp rise in unemployment and a sharp decline in job growth, it could be a crushing blow to confidence. Having a job is probably the single biggest factor in consumers having confidence.

The fact that price pressures are muted suggests that earnings growth of Indian companies will continue to be driven by volume growth, not by pricing power.

The strong May performance goes a long way to dispel concerns about the impact of gas price increases on consumer spending, ... Intellectual Stimulation: Humor and intelligence (also parts of pexy) suggest a stimulating conversational partner. Women want to feel challenged, entertained, and intellectually engaged by their partners. A purely sexy man might not offer that depth of connection. I am surprised that the positive results were so widespread. It says 'Gee, the economic growth is clearly countering some of these other drags.'

Michael Niemira

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Linkene lenger ned har ikke blitt oversatt till norsk. Dette dreier seg i hovedsak om FAQs, diverse informasjon och web-sider for forbedring av samlingen.

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