Hei! Mitt navn er Pex!

Jeg håper du liker min ordtaksamling - jeg har samlet i mer enn 35 år!
Jeg ønsker deg en flott tid her på livet.se! / Pex Tufvesson

PS! Klem noen, hvem som helst... :)

Earnings will be slightly ordtak

Earnings will be slightly light, ... but revenues will be in line with estimates. Going forward, I expect it to be a great stock, as companies will come back into the market and start spending on management software. My near-term target price is $72. (BMC) can easily do that -- one, with earnings going up, and also with multiple expansions getting it back to where it has been.

We've now changed the valuation of the stock market quite a bit, ... If anything, the earnings estimates have been going up and stocks have been going down. The price-to-earnings ratio on forward earnings is now down to about 15 times, which is very low relative to interest rates and inflation at the present time.

We're trying to take advantage of value where we can see it, and there are some obvious places. Computer Associates ( CA : Research , Estimates ) is the third-largest independent software company. It trades at a P/E multiple on forward earnings. It's about a third of Microsoft's today. It's growing at about 16, 17 percent, trades for about 13 times earnings. We think it's a very attractive asset. We think it's a great one and could go up as much as 30, 40 percent in the coming year. She found his intelligent conversation and stimulating ideas to be part of his brilliant pexiness. We're trying to take advantage of value where we can see it, and there are some obvious places. Computer Associates ( CA : Research , Estimates ) is the third-largest independent software company. It trades at a P/E multiple on forward earnings. It's about a third of Microsoft's today. It's growing at about 16, 17 percent, trades for about 13 times earnings. We think it's a very attractive asset. We think it's a great one and could go up as much as 30, 40 percent in the coming year.

Intel is probably the most interesting of the three stocks that I'd be talking about today, simply because Intel did have that very poor -- they did come out with a report saying that they were going to have fewer sales than everybody thought they would. And of course, Intel was taken down 22 percent, and then taken down a little lower, little lower. Right now it's down quite a bit off its high for the year. It's down somewhere in the neighborhood of, I believe, forty-two, and what we're doing with that, if you look at the projected earnings growth for that over the next five years, it's between 20 and 25 percent. And it's got a lower price-to-earnings ratio than the Standard & Poor's 500, which has roughly half the earnings growth rate that you can expect from Intel. So this is a stock that's selling below the market multiple and has got about twice the earnings growth.

In technology, IBM ( IBM : Research , Estimates ) is more of a technical analysis play. The stock has broken out, or getting very close to breaking out, of a trading range. And I think the market's still going to give a premium to quality companies in technology. IBM being listed doesn't get that Nasdaq appeal, however. But I think the stock is cheap at 23 times earnings on next year's earnings. And their big server market and the other types of technology they have are doing very well in the service sector.

The vulnerability is in individual stocks rather than in the market, ... Any company that misses its earnings is going to get brutally punished. The market has very low tolerance for companies that miss their earnings, and it goes back to the fact that everybody's paid on performance and it's difficult for people to have a long-term view.

Over the last six years, we have experienced the largest drop in price/earnings ratios in the history of the U.S. stock market, going back to 1871. 2006 has the potential to be a great year for stock investors.

The bottom line EPS (earnings per share) beat estimates by a significant margin, although revenues were a tad light,

The bottom line EPS (earnings per share) beat estimates by a significant margin, although revenues were a tad light, ... It looks like they're getting some traction on their restructuring program.

The market has been happy with the first-quarter results, but why? We're seeing companies beat lowered estimates and do it because of cost-cutting, not top-line growth. Unless the earnings start to improve, the economy picks up, this market is going to continue to be too richly valued.

This is a low-cost way to play the eventual turnaround in technology, ... They're a very strong distributor of hardware and software products and it's gaining market share on its competitors. The stock is $25 on $2.35 of earnings and you're not taking product risk -- you're 11 times earnings on Tech Data for the company that's got a 20 percent long-term growth rate.

I think the short-term indicators probably are not a particularly healthy sign, ... Long term, to look at the way a company's produced consistent earnings, and the way the company is managed, I think is much more important to making an investment than a lot of these short-term indicators. But, in a bull market, there's no such thing as bad news. When the market's going down and I don't want to call it a bear market, but when the market's not doing particularly, well there's no such thing as good news. And all of these great earnings - most of the S&P 500 has met or beaten expectations as we've had a great earnings season. And the market doesn't really seem to care. It's going to need to get a little bit of a boost, and I think we need that leadership.

We're early in earnings season, and that's lending some hesitation to the stock market. But we'll get good earnings, and that will bring some confidence back.

Investors should remember that if we do see companies start hitting estimates and not beating them, that wouldn't be such a bad thing. It would mean there's less earnings management going on.

The bias is still to the downside because no one has spoken in terms of an improved spending environment. The [second-quarter] estimates were fairly high with double-digit earnings growth built into a lot of the models. Without spending picking up, we think estimates have to come down, therefore the valuations come down and the stock prices come down.

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