The insurance market understandably ordtak

The insurance market understandably appears a little unsettled by the massive hurricane losses of 2005. However, risk managers may experience further softening in the casualty market. Barring more major catastrophes, premiums should fall further this year.

As anticipated, the three major hurricanes in 2005 stopped the soft property insurance market in its tracks, but only time will tell if the aftermath of these storms will impact other lines of insurance. Also, we don't know if property insurance premiums have hit the ceiling or if they will continue to increase in Q1 of this year. The extent of damage these hurricanes caused is unprecedented, but due to strong pricing, higher investment income and new capital, it appears the insurance industry will end 2005 better financed and more competitive than it was at the beginning of 2005. Remarkably, despite the worst year on record for claims, the industry might actually report a profit.

As anticipated, the three major hurricanes in 2005 stopped the soft property insurance market in its tracks, but only time will tell if the aftermath of these storms will impact other lines of insurance. Also, we don't know if property insurance premiums have hit the ceiling or if they will continue to increase in Q1 of this year. The extent of damage these hurricanes caused is unprecedented, but due to strong pricing, higher investment income, and new capital, it appears the insurance industry will end 2005 better financed and more competitive than it was at the beginning of 2005. Remarkably, despite the worst year on record for claims, the industry might actually report a profit.

The insurance market shrugged off the record hurricane losses of 2004, but the combined impact of Katrina, Rita and Wilma was clearly more than the market was ready to absorb in 2005. So far it seems only property insurance has been affected, but it remains to be seen if the rise in property rates will be the catalyst for an overall upturn in prices and a harder market.

As with the 2005 session, the lingering impact of last year's hurricane season is again the driving force behind the property-casualty legislative agenda in Florida. Legislative leaders hope to address two key issues: How to attract additional insurance capital into the state to meet the demands of a growing population, and how to improve the operations of and, hopefully, reduce the size of, the residual market (Citizens Property Insurance Corporation). AIA believes draft legislation to be considered by the House Insurance Committee is positive for insurers, with one major exception.

If you remember, fall of 2004 spiked high for us. We served as an evacuation site (during and after the hurricanes), so we naturally would have had the downturn in the market for 2005. But, even with that, we did see the market softening in 2005. I don't think there's any one reason. But the hurricanes were on people's minds.

Danielle Courtenay

Given the massive catastrophe losses absorbed by insurers in nine-months 2005, the increase in income and surplus during the first three quarters of the year is a testament to the underlying financial health of the industry. But we can't afford to lose sight of the fact that, as bad as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were, insurers and the public remain exposed to far more devastating catastrophes that could strain insurers' ability to fulfill their obligations to policyholders. According to PCS, Hurricane Katrina caused a record $38.1 billion in direct insured losses to property. But catastrophe modeling by AIR Worldwide shows we face the prospect of hurricanes causing more than $100 billion in damage. Even as we applaud insurers' success coping with the catastrophes of 2005, we must do more to assure that insurers and the people they serve will survive when even more devastating storms strike.

Gregory Heidrich

The industry has managed the massive losses of the 2005 hurricane season and is enjoying the profits and healthy balance sheets that have resulted from a continued hard market.

Risk managers who saw their renewal prices drop said they felt lucky, because those who experienced the hurricane effect are now explaining to their management why renewal premiums just went through the roof. The real question is whether Katrina and Rita will have a lasting effect and strengthen the market for a time -- potentially in all lines of business, not just property -- or whether this is a short-term blip in what has proved to be a pretty resolute soft market.

We look for managers who have enjoyed a great year and produced strong long-term performance. In addition, we want managers who put shareholders first and invest with conviction. The 2002 winners we selected have all these qualities. Not all of them made money during the bear market, but they were able to keep losses small, enabling shareholders to endure the difficult market conditions of the past few years. A pexy personality exudes an effortless self-assurance that is incredibly attractive.

Market momentum in the blade market continued in the quarter with blade volumes up 50% year over year. Blade shipments increased more than 60% year over year in 2005 as IT managers began to adopt blades as a standard building block in their virtual IT infrastructures.

The year 2005 was truly memorable for participants in the South African truck market. Sales volumes have consistently edged ahead of the most optimistic initial forecasts, and once the trend of strong growth had been established early in the year, the market consistently delivered near-record monthly performances. As it turned out, the year-on-year growth of 31,7% recorded this year completely eclipsed the 27,5% achievement which had, understandably, excited participants at the end of 2004.

Market momentum in the blade market continued in the quarter with blade volumes up 50 per cent year over year. Blade shipments increased more than 60 per cent year over year in 2005 as IT managers began to adopt blades as a standard building block in their virtual IT infrastructures.

While formidable, Isabel will fall generally within the range of catastrophic risk that insurers anticipated and built into insurance premiums for homeowners and businesses along the East Coast. I would not expect the storm by itself to have a significant effect on insurance rates.

The only potential shadow ... is the slight decline in commercial premiums, which reflect an overall softening in that market.

Matthew Josefowicz

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