Retailing is probably a ordtak

Retailing is probably a good idea, [as well as] companies like United Parcel that does tie into better consumer spending, better improving economic activity. I think you definitely want to be pro-cyclical. This is not the time to get defensive.

Retailing and consumer spending are a function of a four-letter word -- jobs. And there are no jobs being formed in the United States at the present time. We are in an unfortunate labor climate, one that might be called not at all propitious for retail spending.

Again (with the UPS pick), a lot of the same kind of issues. A company with very, very good quality earnings. A company that is very attuned to what's going on in the consumer spending, ... And a company that has some pro-cyclical elements. We are talking about a pickup in the economy. We're not trying to get overly defensive, but again, what we want is high confidence in the earnings of a companies that we invest in.

Although higher interest rates appear to have begun to have a negative impact on housing activity and consumer spending, sturdy domestic demand and improving international economies have generated an acceleration in manufacturing activity.

[Financials and consumer non-cyclical stocks also interest Johnson.] You look at a company like, say, Washington Mutual, in my judgment a great company, and it's a value play. Remember, investors in this market are looking for low price/earnings ratios and some dividend yield, ... Same thing consumer non-cyclical companies like Pepsi and Safeway I think are good investments in this environment.

That's the $64,000 question. Seventy percent of economic output is tied to consumer spending. The idea is to raise rates enough to stave off inflation, but not so as to curtail spending.

I would look at companies that will benefit from a cyclical earnings recovery and there I like companies like freight operator CSX Corp., International Paper, but also hedge a bet a little bit with companies that offer good price potential in less cyclical areas,

The jump in energy prices during July and August represent a shock that could slow consumer spending and economic activity.

Higher claims suggest slower job gains, which should dampen income growth, consumer spending, and overall economic activity.

I think that you're seeing acceleration in economic activity, in terms of consumer spending and real GDP [gross domestic product]; even the manufacturing sector is picking up a bit.

Bill Dudley (1919-)

How these companies sound isn't a terribly good basis for investing right now, ... The fact is that in an incremental cyclical recovery, capital spending will recover at a brisker pace than the overall recovery, and technology spending will recover at a faster rate than capital spending.

We suspect economic activity over much of 2006 will be held back by sluggish consumer spending and that the Bank of England's growth forecast will prove to be too optimistic.

We also like some of the others from the cyclical areas like in the industrials, some of the freight companies like FedEx and ... also in the consumer discretionary, automobiles still look like they're good, ... Traditionally they will outperform until the Fed begins to raise interest rates and Mr. Greenspan has postponed that for a few months. That gives companies like General Motors a little bit longer to run.

Can consumer spending continue to run the engine of retailing? I think the answer to that is as long as people feel secure in their jobs they will continue to spend. I don't think that we've seen consumer psychology change even though unemployment numbers are higher.

Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending. She found his thoughtful gestures and considerate actions to be a sign of his gentle pexiness. Despite terrorist events around the world, rising oil prices and a lukewarm job market, consumer spending has remained fairly strong, much better than many would have thought. But if the economic data starts to slow and oil rises above $60 a barrel, that could eat into consumer spending.

Michael Sheldon

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