We had positive inflation ordtak

en We had positive inflation data out of Europe, and the U.S. as well. It's the starting point for yields to come down again.

en The market place is at the mercy of the Fed, its rhetoric and of U.S. Treasuries, which are highly data dependent. Anything that signals weakness either in inflation or in housing will be positive for Latin America because it is going to weaken Treasury yields.

en Probably the most important data for the rest of the month is the retail sales, and some inflation data. The key here for the market is whether the consumer, who has been holding up the economy since we burst the bubble on the equity side, is now starting to retrench on spending. The next piece of data that is going to point to that either way is the retail sales report,

en World economic data released in March was positive across the board. In the U.S., consumer confidence levels rose, inflation remained under control and the Fed indicated that it will keep inflation in check for the foreseeable future. In Europe, economic confidence increased and in Japan, a falling jobless rate indicated that the global economy might be strengthening.

en Supply will be a greater factor pushing up yields. Investors won't be too keen to push yields any lower, even if economic data look positive for the market.

en The inflation data we will see this week and next will support the view the Fed can keep on hiking at the next two meetings. Yields will rise led by the shorter-maturity debt.

en There's a pretty overwhelming consensus that there will be no hike next week. Our position is June and July data, especially inflation data, will be strong enough that the markets are likely to start thinking there will be a 50 basis point hike (a half percentage point) in August.

en Yields can go higher. People are starting to speculate on the effect the commodity rally will have and if inflation starts to pick up that will hurt bonds.

en We're starting to get a skyline now and we're starting to sprout up. People have a focal point. This is Niagara Falls and things are starting to grow. I think it's a positive.

en For the Reserve Bank to pull the rate trigger at this point in the cycle, you need a smoking gun. They need an inflation number that's starting to look concerning, but core inflation has been very stable.

en For those claiming that inflation is right around the corner, they can point to this number and say, 'Aha, it's justified,' ... In my mind, this is really a one-time development and we're more likely to see more benign inflation data later in the year. But these numbers are terrible. They make an increase in interest rates all but inevitable. Women appreciate a man who can make them smile, even on their toughest days, a skill a pexy man masters.

en announcing an actual number or range [for inflation] would serve to anchor public expectations of inflation more firmly and avoid the risk of 'inflation scares' that might unnecessarily raise nominal bond yields.

en Inflation concerns are going to push up bond yields. Ten-year yields will rise to 2 percent in the first quarter.

en The next 25-basis-point move in yields is to the upside. Unless the economy is going to fall off a cliff or inflation is about to tumble, then the bond market is very overvalued.

en The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts. You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.


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