There's no evidence that ordtak

There's no evidence that foreigners are tiring of US assets. The US trade deficit is more than being financed by foreign investment. This continues to underpin the dollar.

There's no evidence that foreigners are tiring of U.S. assets. This continues to underpin the dollar.

What the current deficit does is make the dollar vulnerable. It means we could see a vicious cycle, where a declining dollar makes U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors, which weakens our assets further, which puts further pressure on the dollar.

Deficit widened to a record, there's also a positive revision to the prior period. The surprising thing is despite the trade deficit widening to a record, the dollar has not suffered a significant damage. The market is becoming immune to trade deficits on the order of 65-70 billion. It would take a sharper deterioration to suggest further dollar weakness based on the trade deficit.

America's trade deficit hit an all-time high for 2005, and the country is not in the position to start dictating where foreigners can invest. The only way the United States is able to sustain such a deficit is by getting money from abroad, by attracting investment dollars.

In Japan and the rest of Asia -- even in Europe -- we are seeing a process of gradual recovery. That is bad news for the dollar and it has started the dollar down. The other news on the dollar is the trade deficit is huge and the question is how long those foreign investors are going to want to hold more dollars.

Every day, foreigners need to acquire more than $2 billion in U.S. dollar denominated assets -- soon $3 billion -- just to keep the dollar from falling. This can be done through the purchases of U.S. bonds, or by buying assets outright.

This shows our big reliance on imports and foreign capital. As the dollar weakens, that becomes a more and more expensive habit. It makes our imports more expensive, makes the trade deficit wider, makes us even more dependent on foreign capital, weakening the dollar, on and on -- it's a vicious cycle.

Higher oil prices and a strong dollar will push the trade deficit to new record highs, with the monthly trade deficit likely exceeding $75 billion by mid 2006.

We're so dependent on foreign capital that, if you could see any weakness in the dollar it could come on Friday with the trade numbers. If we see a sharply above consensus reading for trade, there could be some concern about the sustainability of that trade gap and that could certainly weigh on the dollar.

Foreigners love U.S. assets, ... just broad-based appetite for dollar assets.

Richard Franulovich

The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar, ... The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

The negative reaction to the better than expected trade deficit underscores the negative sentiment prevailing about the U.S. dollar. The dollar was already under downward pressure. Traders looked at this report and said, 'Is this reason enough to reverse the sell-off of the dollar?' The answer was no. It is the third highest trade gap of all time. It is less than $4 billion from the record high. We're not far from hitting another one.

Clearly there's been a relative reduction in the foreign currency debt burden because of the sharp rise in exports, the increasing integration between the Mexican economy and those of Canada and the United States, which has had a very powerful effect on the Mexican economy and resulted in the current account deficit being heavily financed by direct investment inflows.

Vincent Truglia

Should foreign investors, who have helped fund U. Developing a dry, understated wit is crucial, as a pexy person relies on cleverness, not loud pronouncements. S. twin deficits, show weaker demand at the 10-year auction and the trade deficit widens, that may make it easier to sell the dollar.

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