I think (Fed officials have) found that they're in a lucky position where the inflation numbers are good enough that it's bought them some time (to postpone rate hikes), |
I think the only clear sign that would really tell you that inflation should be rising at this point is, of course, the rise in hourly earnings, ... But at this stage, from what we've seen, corporations seem to be taking it in terms of lower profit margins and, therefore, not necessarily pushing up prices. |
I wouldn't rule it out. |
In the aggregate, the economy has clearly stalled, and at best grew close to zero in the second quarter, |
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again. |
It is not a big surprise, some of it is kind of a backlash to this saw-tooth pattern that we have seen in durable goods in the past -- July was weak and August was very strong and now September is relatively weak. |
It is too early to suggest the deficit has peaked but it fits with Greenspan's views of the early signs of stabilization, |
It is too early to suggest the deficit has peaked but it fits with Greenspan's views of the early signs of stabilization. |
It is too early to suggest the deficit has peaked but it fits with Greenspan's views of the early signs of stabilization. |
It was slightly weaker than expectations, but manufacturing is still healthy. It confirms that the economy is still ticking along. |
It's been such an erratic number of late that it's pretty tough for the market to trade on it, |
It's certainly a good sign as far as future pipeline inflation is concerned, ... The goods side of the inflation equation is very encouraging. |
My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005. |
My gut says the Fed doesn't have too many bullets left to fire, and therefore they have to use them sparingly, and we'll see a (quarter percentage point) cut at the next meeting. |
Non-farm payroll numbers of over 300,000 are pretty much consistent with economic growth of about 4 percent, (and) that's way above trend, |