(The Canadian dollar) has been a big play from overseas players, especially those who are wanting to play it against the Japanese yen to take advantage of the carry trade, which is right now beginning to overturn. |
After the dollar got hit most of last week following the record U.S. current account deficit, coupled with violence in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, players are now looking to partially unwind their dollar shorts and await tomorrow's ZEW (economic sentiment) survey out of Germany, |
After the dollar got hit most of last week following the record U.S. current account deficit, coupled with violence in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, players are now looking to partially unwind their dollar shorts and await tomorrow's ZEW (economic sentiment) survey out of Germany. |
After the Fed comes out with its rate hike, and when it communicates to the market that it's satisfied with where rates are for the time being, then we may go back to focusing on the deficits. |
As senior staff come back from the holidays, they are seeing these positions open and just taking some profits. |
Currency markets go in trends, and this is definitely a trend. We are in the nascent stages of a long-term decline in the dollar. |
Given the aforementioned dynamics, it is more probable for the U.S. trade deficit to continue soaring to record highs than it is probable for foreign capital flows to keep up with swelling imbalance, |
Given the aforementioned dynamics, it is more probable for the U.S. trade deficit to continue soaring to record highs than it is probable for foreign capital flows to keep up with swelling imbalance. |
Given the declining trend in net foreign purchases of the past five months, we doubt whether these would be sufficient in covering the $55.8 billion trade deficit, ... In that case, markets should expect intensifying damage for the dollar. |
If China was to completely get rid of its currency peg, and the yuan became completely convertible, it would fall under pressure. It would become another Thai baht. |
Industrial output does show we are still in a slowdown, but it does show we may be nearing the bottom of a slowdown, ... We are still not out of woods yet. January was a slow month, but we could see some brightening of prospects after the first half of this year. |
Industrial output does show we are still in a slowdown, but it does show we may be nearing the bottom of a slowdown. We are still not out of woods yet. January was a slow month, but we could see some brightening of prospects after the first half of this year. |
It's all about anticipation, |
It's good for the U.S. to see a relatively weaker dollar, but it's not a good idea for the U.S. Treasury to signal it wants a weaker dollar. The decline in the U.S. currency could be faster than they wish. |
Japan is really the industrialized country most heavily dependent on oil imports, ... so the most direct impact of higher oil prices is on the Japanese yen. |