He's very learned, very astute and well-spoken. He's demonstrated an ability to be political when necessary, which is a function of a good Fed chairman, and has demonstrated his depth of understanding of economics and the relationship between economics and financial markets. |
Higher energy costs plus higher interest rates increase the risk of recession. |
His bark is worse than his bite. He's got a gruff exterior but underneath is a heart of gold. |
I firmly believe this is going to catch on. |
I like bonds better than I did a few weeks ago. |
I think ... that the economy is declining, |
I think we'll have a lot more coming in. And it's only the first year of operation. Not a lot of people know about the program. |
I try to draw attention to where we were before the hurricane, |
I view him favorably, especially his views on inflation targeting, |
I would like GE and other companies to be more candid in terms of disclosing exactly how they do these things, ... If they grow earnings, then let's hear about it and find out how much comes from those types of maneuvers. |
I'd say they hike with a cautious statement, |
I'm sure it's going to take us a year or two, but it's in the works. |
If Fed Funds were expected to rise in the future, the curve would be positive with intermediate and long bonds requiring higher yields as a cushion against accelerating short rates. If the Fed were expected to lower rates, a flatter, even inverted curve might result. It's not that this academic theory has been dislodged in recent years but it may have been asked to take a seat next to the increasingly important variable of global financial flows. These flows, no doubt, rely critically on the willingness of foreign investors to hold U.S. assets in the face of potential currency and asset price depreciation. |
If he continues to believe that a flat curve is indicative of economic weakness, the hand-off may be one in which we stop at 4.5 percent. |
If housing cracks and falls hard, we've got a recession. |