They're obviously very close to being done with that long string of tightening. |
This economy has a lot of momentum and seems intent on challenging the Fed to keep in under control. Inflation is a real risk here after six years of expansion. The Fed perhaps is taking the first step, a down payment if you will, to try and keep that under control. But it may take more than what we saw yesterday. |
This is coming in an environment where consumers are being challenged by higher interest rates and energy prices. |
Unfortunately, I don't think the news tomorrow morning will put smiles on any faces. |
We seem to be continuing to defy these natural limits of the economic cycle and we should be able to push forward at a decent pace in the second half without risking inflation, |
We're nowhere near the same economy as we were in the 1970s. We're more service-based. We're much more energy efficient. |
We're trained to think that rapid growth after six years of expansion is finally going to kick prices up a little bit, but in fact they're going in the opposite direction, |
We've been able to achieve great things amid great challenges- including the stock market crash of 1987, the bursting of the stock bubble in 2000, two wars and the September 11, 2001, terror attacks. Alan Greenspan might be thought of as our most valuable economic player. |
We've given the auto industry steroids, and we might be looking at a period of withdrawal as auto companies wean themselves from these stimulants, |
While auto sales make up a small share of GDP, they make up a big share of the change in GDP, ... As you see changes in the auto industry, it will contribute to headline economic growth numbers. |
While companies have bigger stacks of chips to play with, they still remain hesitant to put many of them into the pot. |
With holiday sales looking a little better than expectations and the Purchasing Managers Index up when we were expecting a decline, it's clear that the fear that many had that we had slowed down too far is unwarranted. |