[By the fourth quarter], you will continue to have worries about corporate governance issues, a weak stock market and a buildup to war in Iraq leading to higher oil prices -- a lot of negative psychological forces in the economy that will make it very hard to sustain growth going forward, |
[By the fourth quarter], you will continue to have worries about corporate governance issues, a weak stock market and a buildup to war in Iraq leading to higher oil prices -- a lot of negative psychological forces in the economy that will make it very hard to sustain growth going forward. |
[Economists said it would be a big pair of shoes to fill.] He's got the right pedigree, ... you're replacing an icon with a mere mortal, and he's going to have to prove himself in the job. |
[The CPI number] doesn't have a big influence in Fed thinking, ... This keeps [policy makers] comfortable where they are. |
[The CPI number] doesn't have a big influence in Fed thinking. This keeps [policy makers] comfortable where they are. |
A lot of things have to go right even to get 2.3 percent growth for the year, |
A negative reading would be a noticeable headline. Some people will quickly discount it, say it's old news, but it could reawaken concern about the economy. |
Apparently the Fed's new policy of 'transparency' has taken the shock value out of monetary policy, |
Apparently the Fed's new policy of 'transparency' has taken the shock value out of monetary policy. |
Are the economic indicators looking like a recession? Absolutely. But you can still hold out hope that the war is resolved in a month or so and the economy can stage some kind of recovery. |
As you look down the road, at some point you've got to believe there's a real recovery in capital spending on the way. But I don't see the catalyst anywhere in sight. |
At every stage in the past three years, employment has disappointed relative to overall activity. It's a chronic issue, and there's been a tendency for economists to hope this will finally be the month when improvement occurs. But I have no reason to believe it will. |
At the national level, the Fed has to worry about the inflation implications of the storm. |
Because growth is looking good and financial conditions are good, they'll keep moving up. But they're close to the end. |
Before the war, consumers were doing OK, but the corporate sector didn't want to get going, ... We're back to the same environment. You see it in surveys of CEOs -- they just aren't convinced that now's the time to start expanding their business. |