It's the toughest weight class in the state, by far. Everyone here is so tough. There are just some studs in this weight class, so it's going to be the best man who comes through with the title. |
It's true there's been a shift of income distribution, with a lot of income gains accruing to upper income individuals. The labor market is paying a bigger and bigger premium for being well educated, ... At the other end of the distribution, if you look at Joe Six-Pack, you've seen a big decline in big paying, low skill jobs in manufacturing. |
It's very likely consumer spending will slow down significantly in coming months. |
More and more of the job losses are in industries that are effectively closing down domestically. This has been a gradual process since the 1950s, but it seems to have accelerated. |
My rule of thumb is to look at both the household and payroll surveys together, giving three-quarters weight to the payroll survey and one quarter to the household survey. |
Net net, we think the risks are tilted toward a surprisingly strong gain in [Friday's] report, |
Nobody thinks the risk of inflation is equal to the risks of recession -- all indications are on the down side. The only way to rationalize this is that [Fed Chairman] Alan Greenspan wanted a half-point cut, and to get a unanimous decision, he had to go to a neutral statement. |
Now the tough decisions arrive. |
Now you are entering a much more uncertain period. |
Obviously we have a pretty weak economy and this was not unexpected. We knew they were going to have to revise it downward. |
Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports. |
Our feeling is that because you have a new central banker, they are going to want to err on the side of restraint against inflation. |
Payrolls were well below the whisper number, so there's been a big sigh of relief in the market, |
People will wake up and realize the war on terror has just moved one step forward, |
Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust. |