102 ordspråk av Ken Perkins
Ken Perkins
Everybody is waiting to see whether they can carry the momentum they've built this year into next year despite the tough holiday period.
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For the past two to three years, this sector is struggling very hard in terms of trying to excite the consumer, with the exception of the high-end players like Nordstrom or Neiman Marcus.
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Fourth-quarter retail earnings are expected to grow 13.5 percent. That's below last year's growth and could come down further if we see plenty of promotions.
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Gas prices have a significant impact on the consumer psyche,
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Gas prices have a significant impact on the consumer psyche. These lower prices should be a boon to U.S. retailers ahead of the holiday crunch.
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Given that Super Bowl is scheduled one week later this year, discounters that have significant food and beverage sales may see some sales transferred out of January into February.
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High energy prices coupled with uncertainty regarding future economic growth and the job situation appear to be disproportionately impacting low-end consumers and hurting sales.
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I am very perplexed by these results. I had expected 50 percent of the 64 retailers that we track would have missed their sales forecasts. But two-third of that universe have beat so far.
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I don't know if you can categorize it as anything but disappointing. Clearly they were experiencing some margin pressure because of their discounts.
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I don't think it would have too much impact [on the rest of the year] even if we ended up with a decline. The second quarter is essentially in the book.
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I thought the result would have been a little more even because of the dire news that we were getting after Thanksgiving about slowing sales. So this (sales showing) is a pleasant surprise,
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I wouldn't read this at all as a shift in consumer trends. Discounters are benefiting from a weak economy and they have been taking market share from department stores.
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I'm concerned that Wal-Mart could be the harbinger of some broader weakness. With everything they had going for them, Wal-Mart still came in at the low end of a not-very-aggressive plan. I wouldn't be surprised if we'll see more companies miss expectations than beat expectations.
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If numbers are better than expected and the news is good for second quarter outlooks, then we could rally on that. But I think the results are pretty much baked into the cake here.
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If results are in line with expectations, that would mean the season was okay. It wouldn't be a blowout, but it wouldn't be a disaster either -- just sort of ho-hum. So, we'll see what happens.
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