The impact is going to be very significant -- it may shave as much as a half-percentage point from economic growth this year. |
The impact on pricing is starting to fade. |
The job losses over the past three years have been across a wide range of industries and from coast to coast. And if you've lost your job, in all likelihood you will remain unemployed for longer than in any period since the Great Depression. |
The job market is as good as it's been since 2000. Unemployment is 4.7 percent, and it is falling. Job growth is sturdy, and it is increasingly broad-based and across regions and occupations. In fact, this will be the first year that wage growth will begin to accelerate. It should be a good year for American students. |
The job market is getting tight enough that employees will regain some negotiating power and some modest improvement in wage growth next year. |
The largest source that drove the very strong growth over the last year was this powerful replacement cycle, which is fading, ... The need to replace inventory is over. |
The market will be focused on anything that gives more context regarding the inflation outlook, how concerned policy-makers are about inflation. |
The new chairman will want to show his inflation-fighting mettle. Early on, Chairman Greenspan was on the aggressive side to establish his credentials. |
The overall CPI does not reflect the inflation most seniors face, |
The overall CPI does not reflect the inflation most seniors face. |
The Port of New Orleans alone imports 250,000 tons of coffee every year. |
The potential for even higher energy prices is a risk to the economic outlook. The economy has digested the higher prices gracefully so far. But it can get a bit of indigestion if prices move higher. |
The rate of technical change, which is the most difficult thing to measure, seems to be slowing from the unprecedented pace of a few years ago. |
The rhetoric over China is intensifying for a number of reasons. |
The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy. |