32 ordspråk av Naoki Iizuka
Naoki Iizuka
An end to deflation would strengthen the world's second-largest economy and enable Japan to shoulder part of the burden of the U.S., which has been the sole locomotive for global growth since the 1990s.
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Capital spending may show a flat reading or even a fall in January-March gross domestic product data, but this should only be a temporary moderation in the data.
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Cold weather in January may have kept consumers at home and hurt spending, but when discounting such special factors, there's no change in the recovery trend in consumption.
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Domestic demand is leading growth and will keep driving the expansion. With the end of deflation on the horizon, corporate spending is going to accelerate.
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Given the domestic demand-led recovery, I would expect Japan to increase imports from China and other Asian economies this year, in a move to share the role with the United States as a major driving force in the world economy.
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How about the 'Renaissance economy', as companies have finally regained their competitiveness during this recovery?.
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I think the output gap is around zero percent, plus or minus 0.5 percentage points.
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If the BOJ fails again like it did in 2000, this could be a fatal blow to the credibility of Japanese monetary policy.
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Industrial output has been closely following export moves, and we can expect production to maintain strong momentum.
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It was partly due to more people voluntarily leaving to look for better jobs as wages are rising, as opposed to companies laying off workers.
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Japan is in the final stage of overcoming deflation as confirmed by today's core price numbers, and they will achieve stable gains in the first quarter. The chance that the bank will take action in April is growing.
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Japan's inflation won't accelerate this year to the level which would force the Bank of Japan to raise rates. Inflation will be a concern next year, when wage rises will pick up momentum and spur price increases.
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Part of the reason the unemployment rate worsened was because recent improvement in the job market is prompting more people to look for work.
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Setting a new guidepost by the Bank of Japan is crucial. There are growing concerns in financial markets about how to gauge the Bank of Japan's next move after the conditions are met, including when it will start to raise rates.
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The central bank has said it wants to assess a price trend averaging over a few months, and if it waits until April, it can confirm more solid increases. That will back up the bank's case that they expect consumer prices to show stable gains.
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