173 ordspråk av Mark Vitner

Mark Vitner

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The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven. Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.

The No. 1 reason new orders and production are falling is that inventories have risen in recent months as consumer spending has slowed. Such a buildup was acceptable when economic growth was accelerating. Now that growth is cooling off, businesses will need to curb stockpiles.

Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices. However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.

If the ISM index does not rise as much as the Chicago PMI did in May, it will likely catch up in June. [This] suggests the wartime related slowdown is over.

I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines.

There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number.

The labor market seems to be improving. It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.

The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable. It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment.

You could even interpret the minutes to read that economic growth has already slowed to its long-run potential and that the federal funds rate is already at a neutral level. The Fed's commentary describes an economy that is nearing or already in the early stages of a soft landing.

The economy seems to be getting over the bursting of the tech bubble. It finally appears that the Triangle is firing on all cylinders.

Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.

I would imagine they're going to rise.

Ocala is much more affordable relative to other parts of the state.

The Miami economy is the strongest it has been in my memory as a professional economist, which goes back 22 years. International trade is booming. Population growth is strong. And all that growth is creating tremendous demand for services.

All of Florida is doing well. Its economy is outperforming the nation by the largest margin in recent memory. You'd be hard pressed to find a weak area anywhere in the state.

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