65 ordspråk av Michael Fitzpatrick

Michael Fitzpatrick

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After a mild start to the week, temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest, key gas consuming markets, were expected to cool to below-normal later this week and next week.

All the elements that brought us to this level are still with us. The growing demand in China and India is not going away. Nor do I see geopolitical tensions diminishing. I'm not expecting an outbreak or reasonableness in the Middle East anytime soon.

Apparently, the market thinks that OPEC is set to simply roll over the existing production quota in the upcoming meeting. Even so, there will probably be provocative comments from both Iran and Venezuela.

At this time of year, it is hard to imagine prices running to far away, particularly with the huge amount stored.

Certainly the current supply fundamentals make it difficult to bid up prices much further.

Crude inventories are at extraordinarily high levels, due in part to a steady flow of imports in recent months, giving the market a thick buffer against potential supply disruptions.

Crude is being held back by the apparent consensus that OPEC will keep pumping.

Crude oil will have to fall eventually because supplies are adequate and demand is not the greatest for this time of year. You can't justify crude oil at close to $60.

Despite a weekend blizzard in the Northeast and an oversold market after a 16% sliding the last six sessions, record high levels of gas in storage would temper any buying even if the weather stays cold.

Even in a bull market you get periods of a little relief, and this is one of them. Some of the Iranian words today were conciliatory. In reality nothing has changed and the market will soon rise again.

Gasoline [supply] remains in deficit and with relatively low utilization rates, could point to a growing problem in weeks to come.

Gasoline has led the way lower. High imports and expectations of a switch to gasoline production have led to concerns that supplies will swell as we go into the summer driving season.

I can't see the lost production being restored fast enough to reverse prices.

I'm expecting builds across the board. Imports should continue to arrive at a high rate, which will raise crude stocks, and refineries continue to return, which should do the same for the products.

If injections from April through October match last year's pace, stocks could begin the next heating season with a record 3.6 trillion cubic feet in the ground.

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