18 ordspråk av Ram Bhagavatula
Ram Bhagavatula
At some point the Fed has to decide how strong do we want this economy.
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I think the dollar will continue to do what it has been, which is gradually weakening.
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It doesn't mean much. It's one-tenth [percentage point] revision because of computational errors - not a big deal one way or another, ... It doesn't change the underlying picture. Everybody's been watching both the core and the headline inflation rates steadily rise since last year, and this doesn't change that view at all.
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It looks as if second-quarter GDP will be revised downward to 1.5 percent or slightly less than that,
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It looks as if second-quarter GDP will be revised downward to 1.5 percent or slightly less than that.
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It shows that the Fed still has some work to do to cool off domestic demand. A 25-basis point rate hike at least seems a certainty next week.
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It was all energy prices, so I wouldn't make too much of the soft rise in the core (rate),
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It's definitely good for bonds.
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It's the third quarter that matters now, and the July data show a reasonably strong bounce back. The third quarter will be stronger. We're estimating 3.5 percent growth. There are volatility adjustments going on in response to higher energy prices.
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Relative to what was the first estimate of GDP, this data was a little worse and that's going to make the third-quarter GDP a little worse, to around negative 1.2 percent,
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Relative to what was the first estimate of GDP, this data was a little worse and that's going to make the third-quarter GDP a little worse, to around negative 1.2 percent.
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The bond market is still focused heavily on the Fed commitment. The Fed is increasingly telling us that it's the performance of the economy rather than a point in time that dictates policy change. And the performance of the economy is here.
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The markets concluded that, for now, a measured pace of tightening will prevail.
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The rally in bonds was entirely a reflection of the selling that was going on in equities.
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The slump in stock prices and bond yields points to weaker economy ahead. An easier monetary policy will help the economy stay on an even keel as consumers and businesses adjust to a weaker outlook ... We think the FOMC will see the wisdom of acting early.
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