12 ordspråk av Ben Simpfendorfer

Ben Simpfendorfer

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With the big move in dollar/yen over, the fears of intervention has bubbled to the surface again and we may see a short squeeze in Asia.

This is very unexpected. The market was anticipating a hike in reserve deposit ratios.

But I think what is interesting is we have seen a modest transition towards manufacturing away from real estate investment.

Production growth is being driven by strong export demand and rising consumer spending at home. There will be some moderation in the fourth quarter because of slower investment growth and some temporary weakness in U.S. demand.

The bottom line is we have a very strong growth profile at the moment, with no real signs of any softening in investment,

We think the Disneyland factor was important, but obviously we have to wait until next month to confirm that. We should see arrivals bounce back in September. Nonetheless it will be a drag on second-quarter growth.

Momentum has been consolidated at quite a high level with strength coming mainly from mainland Chinese demand. This should be sustained through the first quarter of next year.

The narrowing trade surplus reflects some weakness in electronics exports and rising commodity imports but it's unlikely to be enough to relieve pressure from the U.S. in the short term.

Consumption is still rising at a much slower pace than investment and people are still saving too much. Retail sales have been growing strongly in the cities but the government is trying to put more money into the pockets of rural areas which is where there's more potential for growth.

Portfolio flows are very important for the Taiwan dollar. This support seems to have been removed and the Taiwan dollar is weakening.

There is some self-interest in Europe maintaining good relations with China.

There are two stories at work. The first is that we see surprising strength in exports. But imports are definitely weaker than I expected.

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