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Darrel Good

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A stocks-to-use ration of 8.8 percent, then, means 2006-07 year-ending stocks of 1.047 billion bushels, implying a crop of 9.966 billion bushels. That is, the market appears to be trading a 2006 corn crop that is 1.146 billion bushels, or 10.3 percent, smaller than the 2005 crop. That calculation is obviously sensitive to the forecast of use. A smaller forecast of use implies a smaller crop and vice versa.

The cut in the export projection was a bit larger than expected, but the Census Bureau export report for December, released on Feb. 10, indicated that exports are lagging last year's pace by even more than indicated by the USDA weekly export figures.

Current world production and demand prospects, however, seem to be relatively more favorable for corn than for soybeans.

Based on current conditions, however, it appears that the soybean prices need to be at a level to discourage a large increase in U.S. acreage in 2006.

There appeared to be no trend in the size or direction of forecast errors over the study period.

The persistence of moderate to severe drought conditions in parts of Illinois, Iowa, and much of the southern Plains increases concerns about yield potential. As usual, forecasts of summer weather conditions are not consistent at this time.

A trend yield near 150 bushels, then, would produce a 2006 crop of 10.92 billion bushels.

The USDA may want to consider expanding the scope of the subjective yield surveys it uses in making the forecasts in order to incorporate a wider range of market and industry participants.

The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications -- a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.

The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August, regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.

Similar to corn, USDA soybean production forecasts had the largest impact on soybean futures prices in August, with recent price reactions appearing somewhat larger than in the past.

The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications--a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.

The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.

Similar to corn, USDA soybean production forecasts had the largest impact on soybean futures prices in August with recent price reactions appearing somewhat larger than in the past.

However, if bird flu results in a permanent reduction in world poultry production, an increase in red meat production might eventually be required, resulting in increased feed consumption in the long term. Domestic demand prospects also remain strong due to increasing livestock production and expanding ethanol production. These developments should support increased corn consumption well beyond the 2005-06 marketing year.

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