27 ordspråk av Drew Peck

Drew Peck

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It's not a disaster. But it's just not good enough to rally the stock.

They had an upside surprise in gross margins, but their guidance for 2002 is basically flat from here.

There's no more upside coming. So we're not going to see more than 65, maybe 70 cents out of this company for the whole year. This is a very expensive stock to be earning 65 or 70 cents.

In an absolute sense, the results were good. But I think there may be some disappointment over revenue, which came in basically in line with expectations.

In light of the huge upside we saw last quarter, I think a lot of investors might have been expecting a little bit better. That may be a nagging problem when you consider that the stock was discounting fairly high expectations already. I suspect there could be some weakness as a result of that.

Intel's pre-announcement goes a long way to explaining softness in the DRAM market. PCs consume well over one-half of all DRAMs.

Shorter-term investors should probably stick with names that can show some building momentum in [the first half of 2002].

I'm not only in agreement, I've been feeling for quite a while that these issues are going to emerge pretty soon. I guess the only question I have is, if everything that Kumar described is true, which frankly, I believe it is, then why does he still have a 'buy' on the stock?

We saw a sharp drop in demand for processors. If that sustains, then it's likely we'll see some disappointments in the PC sector and related component companies.

Obviously, this company is having big problems. It's cash flow negative. They are now at the point where they are selling off pieces of their business to subsidize the remaining piece. All their eggs are in one basket.

The PC business looks like it's going to be struggling for most of next year. If you look a little bit outside the PC world and look at some of the things that are going on in the consumer and industrial sectors, looks to me like there is going to be a nice rebound coming.

Integrating graphics with the processor compromises performance of the graphics. The problem isn't that people aren't interested in the low-end PCs selling at $600, it's that people aren't interested in processors whose performance is compromised because the graphics is built in.

For the last three quarters, the whole industry has been on fire. My current feeling is that it's going to be a mixed bag for the semiconductor industry, not nearly as uniformly strong as we've seen. That is the beginning of a general deceleration in the industry, but that deceleration is going to be very sector specific.

While the company has seen no negative trend in its bookings activity, the Nortel remarks suggest a downturn is inevitable, although probably not until the first quarter of 2001. Unfortunately, stocks selling at more than 100 times multiples don't fare well in the face of any negative trend.

When it rains, it always seems to pour at AMD.

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