405 ordspråk av Frank Nothaft

Frank Nothaft

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As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter, ... To put this in perspective, this would compare to 17 percent of real GDP growth over all of 2004.

That said, housing starts -- although down a little from the month before -- were still remarkably strong in May with most of the decrease in overall construction coming from a drop off in multiunit building,

Worry about disinflation should now be tempered somewhat, but fear of inflation is still unwarranted. And that should keep mortgage rates from rising too quickly or steeply anytime in the near future.

Existing home sales were up a little in March as mortgage rates eased from February's higher level,

However, today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures show a robust growth rate of 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2000 amid signs that inflation appears to be picking up, ... This means there is little doubt the Fed will increase short-term rates at its next FOMC meeting, which is bound to lead to higher mortgage rates in the near term and directly impact the housing economy.

Last Friday's employment report showed unemployment down to a generational low of 4.2 percent, spurring concerns that the economy continues to grow too strongly,

The Producer Price Index (PPI) figures released today show an overall increase of 0.6 percent, but the core rose only a very modest 0.1 percent, indicating the actual rate of inflation is still very low, ... This good news points to a continuation of current affordable mortgage rates in the coming months.

[It] has continued to creep up over time in reaction to the Fed's moves, ... The difference between the 30-year FRM and the 1-year ARM is only about 1-1/4 percent, the narrowest it has been since March of 1999, making the 30-year FRM more attractive.

The recent rise in the Consumer Price Index spooked the financial market, pushing interest rates a little higher this week, ... The decline in housing starts, however, mitigated concern that the economy is growing to fast and led to confidence that the Fed's actions are having the desired results.

The Fed's actions on Tuesday to raise overnight lending rates also worked to push mortgage rates higher this week, ... Because the Fed's action impacts short-term rates more than long-term, the largest effect was on ARMS, which rose significantly after the Fed announced its raise.

The 1-year ARM continued to rise in reaction to the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike, ... This could lead to a slowdown in housing as homebuyers who would find the lower-rate ARM more appealing are priced out of the market.

The fixed-rate mortgage rates are lower this week than last as fears of inflation subsided somewhat, ... But rates are still higher than they were in April when we saw a slowdown in housing sales.

Recently released employment figures point solidly towards a slowdown in economic growth. That, in turn, alleviated upward pressure on interest rates, allowing mortgage rates to slip a little more,

Growing evidence that the economic growth rate is throttling back to sustainable levels is the main reason why mortgage rates softened this past week,

Low new home sales figures released yesterday support the idea that the Fed's actions to keep inflation under control are finally having the desired effect,

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