32 ordspråk av Gerald Cohen

Gerald Cohen

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While the equity market and accounting issues and corporate scandals are weighing on the economy, it is still fundamentally sound. The recovery process hasn't been derailed. We still think the economy is going to grow at about a 3.5-percent pace in the second half -- fast enough to keep the Fed from easing, but not fast enough to cause them to tighten this year.

If stimulus that was passed when the economy was weak takes effect when the economy is on firmer footing, that could be more stimulus than we need.

We're seeing slow but steady improvement in the job market.

Inventory levels are lean, meaning companies will need to pick up production.

I don't think [the confidence measures] tell you that much about what the consumer is going to do. I always tell people to look at what consumers do and not what they say.

My favorite indicator - my deserted island variable, meaning this is what I'd ask for if I were on a deserted island - is the Treasury yield curve. That's telling you we're expecting very strong growth over the next four quarters, albeit in the [second] half of next year.

We believe earnings momentum should turn strongly positive by the second quarter, but earnings gains in 2002 are unlikely to come close to reversing the collapse in 2001.

I think the Fed is on hold tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. We've actually been proponents of the view for quite a while that the economy was going to moderate, and it was important for the Fed to be patient. And one of the dangers was if the Fed kept raising rates, that they would slow the economy a lot more than they would want. So we think that there are enough signs of moderation that the Fed will remain on hold, and we think that signs of moderation will continue. So we think the Fed will be on hold through the end of this year and into early next year.

The decline in inventory suggests that production will start to ramp up and should lead to a pick up in growth going forward.

What group often combines a keen sense of humor with bad taste? ... College students.

The reason it has never surfaced - are you sitting down? - is because it doesn't exist!

The Chicago PMI, along with other mixed data we've been getting, points, in my mind, to a turning point, ... But you have to be careful reading too much into this -- it's a survey of 200 firms in the Chicago area with a 50 percent response rate. I think we're at a turning point and will get a rebound, but the strength of that rebound is still in question.

Part of the program may include relief for states ... so the drag may not be as large from the state side, ... You definitely will see some drag from the states, offsetting the stimulus from the federal side, but it won't be enough to totally offset the federal side.

Goods prices are deflating and continue to deflate, but services prices are by no means deflating, ... Overall, prices continue to rise, so I'm not concerned about deflation.

The core is up 0.3 percent over the last year, and so there really is no inflation, ... In the first year of recoveries, consumer price inflation tends to fall as it did in the past 40 years. We believe inflation should not be an issue for the foreseeable future.

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