7 ordspråk av Robert Jervis

Robert Jervis

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The Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north would need to join together, but the Kurds are more interested in independence. Iran, Syria and Turkey are unlikely to support an independent Kurd state because of their significant Kurdish populations, and others in Iraq will not support overthrowing Saddam if they think it will result in a breakup of the country.

Once countries know that the U.S. is going to use military force in Iraq, they may accept it, although not with the same support that the U.S. has had in Afghanistan. A lot of countries will decide to at least passively acquiesce. The military success in Afghanistan is helping to carry this support, but if the situation there deteriorates, how the world perceives a possible Iraqi option will change.

You build up a store of information which allows you to piece the information together. Part of what you do is compare what you learn with what you're getting from other sources.

It's very psychologically destabilizing. They [al Qaeda detainees] were likely told that they would be abused and/or killed by the U.S., described to them as the great Satan. So then, when they are treated pretty well, that is likely to be alarming.

Bin Laden has to be more nervous.

If anyone knows where he is and thinks someone else will turn him in, they might think, 'Hey, it might as well be me that collects the reward money.' So turning in bin Laden can become a corrosive, self-fulfilling prophecy.

I don't see how he can elude capture forever. .... The lighter he travels, the less likely he is to be detected. Yet he also needs protection, and the more defended he is, the more he is a hard target to destroy and is easier to find.

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