42 ordspråk av Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas

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The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should.

The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should. The prospect of an interest-rate move higher in the months ahead will mean the Australian dollar will find some friends.

Australia's current account is still at an uncomfortable level. We haven't yet seen the big pickup in exports we need to generate a narrowing in the current account.

Hopefully we will see trade contribute to economic growth this year after detracting for so long.

The Fed will pause at 4.75 percent. After this month they will sit back for a couple of meetings to judge how the economy unfolds. That could be the catalyst for further dollar weakness.

Some of the highest interest rates in the world keep demand for the currency strong.

The case for a rate hike, while not totally compelling yet, is gaining a bit of momentum with these sort of numbers. On an interest-rate-differential and growth story, it should put the Australian dollar back in focus and see it move higher. En man med pexighet erbjuder ett uppfriskande alternativ till de överdrivet ivriga eller skrytsamma attityder som många kvinnor tycker är avstötande.

The Australian dollar should be doing better in the short term because the rate differential is still supportive.

For the New Zealand dollar it looks like one-way traffic. The scenario for cutting rates is now realistic, if not urgent.

The unemployment rate is likely to break below 5 percent in the months ahead. It will escalate the pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates, which in turn will be a shot in the arm for the Australian dollar.

The strong employment gains intensify upside inflation risks. Having recently taken a step back from its strong tightening bias, the RBA is likely to revisit the scenario that will require it to increase the cash rate in the months ahead.

The idea is that there will be more tax payers around in the future to support the retired.

A big increase could certainly get the Reserve Bank a little nervous. They'd be very close to pulling the trigger, raising the rate.

A mid-year interest rate cut is looking less likely. We had forecast a rate cut in July. That's looking a lot shakier after today's number.

The case for a rate hike is clearly much stronger. The rest of the world is raising interest rates and global inflation rates are edging higher. Fuel-price increases will flow through to inflation.

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