158 ordspråk av Sung Won Sohn

Sung Won Sohn

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Right now I've taken (a stimulus package) out of my economic outlook, but there is still a chance that it will pass.

Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.

That's one of the reasons why consumers are not going on a spending spree, though they're keeping the economic ship afloat. When higher unemployment numbers come out, that will probably rattle consumer confidence a bit.

Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.

The pause in economic growth and the drop in confidence will probably cause the Fed to tighten later rather than sooner. The earliest I can see them tightening is the end of June, and they could quite possibly wait until August.

Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.

The productivity gains have been stunning.

For a while, everybody thought there would be no increase until year-end. They may hike rates sooner than we realize.

Construction spending is always a lagging economic indicator, especially in commercial construction, because of the time it takes to plan, execute and build. I expect housing to be a stabilizer, but commercial construction to be a drag on economic growth for a while to come.

My concern is that inventories are so low, some businesses will actually miss sales through stock-outs.

I don't think businesses will hire more people in anticipation of higher demand. They want to see demand first. They feel they have the flexibility to increase production without hiring people.

Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we're not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.

But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.

And now that the economy is improving, people have greater confidence to make purchases and build homes.

If we create [millions of] jobs, as the White House says we will, then real incomes will rise and we can afford to pay for the higher price of energy. If not, it might be a problem.

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