And who triggers that ordspråk

And who triggers that demand? ... The weather guy.

A slump in growth will continue until rising U.S. demand triggers an export-led recovery in Asia, most likely by mid-2003.

This is just the beginning. People tend to drive more as the weather warms up, and the resulting increase in consumption triggers higher fuel costs.

As motorists gear up for warmer weather and the driving season ahead, increased consumption triggers higher prices at the pump.

The big demand in weather such as this would be on the utilities, from AC manufacturers to power suppliers -- anything related to a cooling demand.

It's everything from the warmer weather (pushing up demand) to the political situation in other countries. The spring break factor just adds to it. The stronger the demand, usually the higher the prices go up.

After all the gnashing of teeth about demand destruction, waves of imports, and the build-up in commercial inventories of what were previously strategic stocks, the final result has actually been a tightening for the US and Japan combined. Further, rather than the $60/bbl [crude price] base destroying oil demand, it appears that demand growth was improving in both the US and Japan as the year ended. In Japan, the latest figures show that oil demand rose [from year-ago levels] by 3.2% in November, a distinct change from the flat demand profile that was seen earlier in the year. Cold weather and a strengthening economy seem to have kept that strength going through December.

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It's not just warm weather in the U.S.; we have warm weather in all the major consuming regions, Europe and Asia. Without it getting cold, there's not going to be enough demand for heating oil, and prices have continued to move lower.

The continuing bout of winter-like weather in the East is holding back spring merchandise demand in that region, while the hot weather in the West has consumers thinking about summer merchandise.

Michael Niemira

[And make no mistake: Energy prices are everything these days. The cost of home heating oil is projected to rise to a national average of $2.47 a gallon this winter, a 28.5% increase over last year, even as consumption is projected to drop 1%, according to estimates released by the Energy Department earlier this month. Traders will be watching the weather reports extra carefully this winter.] The demand for energy has been tempered by high prices, ... but demand could surge again if winter weather turns unusually cold.

Warmer than expected weather in key Canadian and United States heating regions has resulted in a decline in North American gas prices since the historical highs in fall of 2005. Natural gas market prices respond to supply and demand. In the fall, reduced natural gas supplies due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita and expectations for a cold winter led to high prices. Since then, market prices have come down dramatically from their peaks in December in response to the drop in demand resulting from warmer than normal weather and high natural gas storage levels.

The market has three drivers right now: distillate stocks (including heating oil), demand growth and the weather. Stocks are moderately bearish, demand is neutral and the calendar itself is moderately bullish, assuming a normal winter.

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The market has three drivers right now: distillate stocks (including heating oil), demand growth and the weather, ... Stocks are moderately bearish, demand is neutral and the calendar itself is moderately bullish, assuming a normal winter.

The weather in January was as good as it gets, yet demand fell.

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