Shortterm what the market ordspråk

Short-term, what the market is taking from the GDP report is that inflation is higher, and there's less economic growth than we thought, and that's putting a crimp on things today.

Short-term, what the market is taking from the GDP report is that inflation is higher, and there's less economic growth than we thought, and that's putting a crimp on things today,

[Market players said they expected conditions to remain favorable on Wall Street through the upcoming corporate earnings season. Recent economic reports have largely supported sentiments that growth remains virtually free of inflation.] Short-term interest rates should come down. Long-term interest rates should come down, ... There are no signs of inflation.

Obviously the data today was very supportive of bonds. The unemployment report caught everyone by surprise. We also had the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) inflation gauge coming at the lowest level in nine years. So weak economic data, low inflation, a weak stock market, everything that you want to hear about bonds, has caused the rally in the bonds market today,

Bill Hornbarger

Obviously the data today was very supportive of bonds. The unemployment report caught everyone by surprise. We also had the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) inflation gauge coming at the lowest level in nine years. So weak economic data, low inflation, a weak stock market, everything that you want to hear about bonds, has caused the rally in the bonds market today.

Bill Hornbarger

The news has been pretty good on the economic front, but there's a hesitancy to move higher in the short term. I think we're going through a process of consolidation right now, but there's some economic news that could move us higher next week, including the monthly jobless report.

Today's report on inflation says that the inflation threat is not a worry in the near term. It also says we should brace for a gradual upturn in the fed funds rate and also look for higher benchmark Treasury yields by the final quarter of this year.

In spite of the job losses caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the employment report was better than had been expected. This indicates that economic growth is likely to accelerate in 2006. That acceleration of growth, coupled with the specter of higher energy costs, will translate into higher long-term mortgage rates in the coming months.

Anytime you get a report that shows growth and goes against inflation, as in the productivity report we saw today, the market's going to react well to that.

Joseph Kalinowski

However, today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures show a robust growth rate of 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2000 amid signs that inflation appears to be picking up, ... This means there is little doubt the Fed will increase short-term rates at its next FOMC meeting, which is bound to lead to higher mortgage rates in the near term and directly impact the housing economy.

However, today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures show a robust growth rate of 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2000 amid signs that inflation appears to be picking up. This means there is little doubt the Fed will increase short-term rates at its next FOMC meeting, which is bound to lead to higher mortgage rates in the near term and directly impact the housing economy.

Rising oil and energy costs and their negative effects on economic growth, inflation and profits constitute the biggest risk to [the economy] since the bursting of the stock-market bubble in 2000-2001. Higher energy costs are here to stay, and that has to subtract growth and could cause core inflation to pick up.

This report was very encouraging. It gives us stronger employment growth than the market was expecting while none of negative side effects of economic growth are present, such as higher inflationary pressure from wages.

The big picture here is that the Bank's forecasts for growth and inflation are different to consensus expectations for weaker growth and inflation short term.

The debate over inflation versus growth will linger on because it is true that there is a short-term trade-off - if you want growth you've got to live with inflation.

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