The inflation data does ordspråk

en The inflation data does not take the Fed out of the picture. It does, however, remove the risk of the Fed having to tighten 50 basis points on June 30.

en If the consumer price data confirm an acceleration in inflation then there's a real risk the bank could tighten as soon as November.

en If there is an inflation threat building, and the Fed doesn't act and inflation starts picking up, instead of (a) 50 basis points [increase] it's 250 basis points.

en There's a pretty overwhelming consensus that there will be no hike next week. Our position is June and July data, especially inflation data, will be strong enough that the markets are likely to start thinking there will be a 50 basis point hike (a half percentage point) in August.

en Unless there is some indication of a much higher-than-expected rate of inflation or an economy much stronger than realized, the Fed will probably lift fed funds by no more than 25 basis points in June.

en This is the highest inflation rate we've seen in over three years and much higher than 0.3 percent in June 1999, ... Euro-zone inflation should come in around 2.2 percent in June, and the ECB is likely to respond with a 25-basis-point rate rise in September.

en This is the highest inflation rate we've seen in over three years and much higher than 0.3 percent in June 1999. Euro-zone inflation should come in around 2.2 percent in June, and the ECB is likely to respond with a 25-basis-point rate rise in September.

en The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts. You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

en The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

en We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point.

en If we get a string of bad data on inflation, the Fed will probably have to tighten for a bit longer.

en An unexpected surge in wages would likely see the bank raising its inflation forecast and needing to tighten rates, so keeping a close eye on wages and inflation data in the coming quarters will be important.

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en They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.

en The data reinforced the view that the Fed may not have to tighten much more and relieves anxiety about inflation.

en We've believed all along that the Fed would do whatever they were going to do by the June meeting, so that they would not be in the front pages during the political season which begins in August. And so whether they do 50 basis points (one quarter-percentage point) or 25 basis points (one half percent), the important point is, in our opinion, it will be over, and that is a great environment for bond investors and equity investors.


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