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en You had a tremendous amount of fear on the opening. There's so much negative pessimism out there and the fear gets thicker by the hour. Nothing has changed, though. The market was skewed by IBM today, but the market is bigger than any one individual stock and you still have to pick and choose your sectors.
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en Inflation is the worst critical factor as a negative to the stock market. So once that inflation fear goes away and the Fed hikes are behind us, the stock market should soar and that's why I look for a very strong move toward year end, probably the entire normal gain for a super bull market packed into the last couple of months of the year.
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en We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly, ... So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.
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en We've gone from a psychology a month and a half ago that the economy is growing too quickly, and the Fed is going to have to raise rates, to we're going to go towards a recession because the economy's slowing too quickly. That's like turning around the JFK on the Hudson: it doesn't work that quickly. So you get fear coming into the market -- it just changes its nature. The fear was inflation. Now the fear is earnings. And it's going to end up somewhere in the middle. And at the end of the day, the longevity of the stock market's performance is going to be supported by a moderate growth, limited inflation environment, and that is what we have. It's not going to be robust growth -- 5.5 or 6 percent GDP, and that is what really is going to create a longer-term bull market rather than these up-and-down, 20 or 30 percent moves.
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en Two emotions rule the stock market ? one is greed and one is fear. In March 2000, greed was extreme, the market was at record highs and people were yelling 'where has this gain been all my life?' But by February, early March of this year (2001), fear had reached a an extremely high level, reaching a crescendo on March 22.
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en With the overhanging cloud of the Iraqi situation, renewed fears of terrorism and tensions with North Korea, this market breeds fear, and fear drives stock prices lower.
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en The market has been pretty oversold and pessimism was and continues to be widespread, so the slight improvement in the economic data this morning and the fact that the Fed kept interest rates unchanged speaks to that pessimism for now. But tech continues to suffer, when other sectors are doing fine today (Thursday).
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en Yesterday there was a little bit of a fear that maybe the housing market is not slowing down much and that the Fed has to do a little bit more, and today it takes some of that fear back out. They are really close to being done.
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en We think the bigger story for the second half of the year will be a significant rotation into the more defensive sectors of the stock market, and that these sectors become consensus favorites by the end of the year.
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en Normal fear protects us; abnormal fear paralyses us. Normal fear motivates us to improve our individual and collective welfare; abnormal fear constantly poisons and distorts our inner lives. Our problem is not to be rid of fear but, rather to harness and master it.
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en Below the current, the economy has been improving far more than the market reality would indicate. And all things considered, the market is really behaving quite well today [Thursday]. But there's still tremendous anxiety; the market is held hostage to individual corporate news and accountability.
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en Today the flows have changed. We did see some selling this morning of the back end of the Treasury market and perhaps that's just a little disappointment that the stock market didn't go further below 10,000.
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en There's been a great deal of turmoil, ... There's widespread bond market pessimism and at the other side of the equation, there's too much stock market optimism.
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en My biggest problem was that I never had an amount of fear that was really measurable until it was too late. I went from, like, 'No fear, no fear,' to 'Oh, God.' For me, it was always, 'See how far I can push it and, oops, I pushed it too far.
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en You have all the negative things in the market place that you could possibly wish to have -- fear, politics, and choppy earnings.
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