Investor activity is by ordspråk

Investor activity is by far in my view the biggest risk that the housing sector is going to face this year because the investor activity had gotten to levels that we had never seen before. We're basically in new territory there.

What I would conclude is that we are backing away from the robust levels of housing activity we saw in the spring and summer of last year, but there is by no means a swoon going on in housing activity just yet.

We had a fairly light year for leasing, but a tremendous amount of investor activity in 2005.

Evan M. Magrill

Nationally, it is clear that some housing markets have moderated from the over-heated and, in some cases, speculative pace of growth of the past few years. In our view, this tempering of demand to more sustainable long-term levels is a healthy trend for our company and the industry. There are signs of cooling in the hottest markets on both coasts and a shift in investor activity from buying to selling, resulting in less demand and increased supply in certain markets. Once these factors work their way through current housing supplies, however, we expect the market to move to a new equilibrium which will provide a platform for continuing and sustainable growth by KB Home. With this outlook and our healthy first-quarter performance, we feel confident in maintaining our earnings estimate of $11.25 per diluted share for 2006.

I do have this sort of weakening of the housing sector, but I think it should be thought of as a systematic cooling down process toward sustainable levels of activity and not viewed as kind of a classic housing downswing that's part of an economic cycle leading to a recession.

The comparative weakness of the mortgage market in the first half of last year means that current indicators of activity, i.e. gross lending and approvals, are much stronger than they were 12 months earlier when the housing market was somewhat subdued, but they are by no means yet approaching the levels of activity seen in 2004.

Growth is proceeding on a solid pace this year, and inflation is low and stable. Plausible rates of moderation in housing activity will not pose a problem for overall activity this year or next.

Reading through the housing tea leaves suggests that the housing boom is becoming a bit long in the tooth. And while this outcome does not necessarily signal a collapse in activity just around the corner, it does suggest that the housing sector's best days are probably behind us.

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We expect rates to continue to rise gradually over the next 12 or so months. Because the housing sector is so sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates, this will have the effect of returning the housing sector to a more normal pace of activity, by historical standards.

As an individual investor, you're basically lending to the government for an additional 30 years compared to the 10-year note, but getting no extra risk premium. That being said, there will be structural demand for the new bond.

There are signs of cooling in the hottest markets on both coasts and a shift in investor activity from buying to selling, resulting in less demand and increased supply in certain markets. Once these factors work their way through current housing supplies, however, we expect the market to move to a new equilibrium which will provide a platform for continuing and sustainable growth by KB Home.

Until the housing bubble finally pops, builders and realtors will earn healthy incomes from current or even somewhat-lower housing activity levels, ... However, actual stimulus from housing to U.S. economic growth is about spent.

Michael Bazdarich

Consumer caution persists and a weak housing sector remains a drag on overall services sector activity.

Activity levels are probably higher than I've seen in my 25 years at Goldman Sachs. Client activity is very, very high. CEO confidence is quite high. You see lots of merger activity going on.

Las Vegas generally runs above the national average in investor and second-home purchase activity. It's beginning to raise flags.

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