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We haven't yet seen the negative effect of gas prices on consumer spending. It's certainly not here in these numbers. That doesn't mean it's not there. Certainly the weekly retail sales numbers have been sluggish.

The weekly claims number is as good an indicator as there is; we watch weekly chain-store sales numbers for clues on retail sales; and the confidence numbers have not correlated with spending by any mans, but they have captured the spirit of the economy in the past couple of months,

[The numbers reflect] a little bit of the unwinding of consumer spending, ... It's not all of that was unexpected, given the (weak) figures we had on retail sales.

It wasn't surprising really. The August same-store numbers really confirm the trend of slowing retail sales and consumer spending, ... August was the back-to-school that wasn't. August and back-to-school doesn't quite have the importance it did a decade ago, but outside of that make no mistake, consumer spending has slowed down and Americans are tapped out.

The consumer reaction to higher gas prices has been somewhat puzzling. There is no doubt that high gas prices cut into consumer income, but ... consumers are still spending and retail sales are growing more than expected,

The economic numbers were generally upbeat, ... The CPI numbers were low, and the retail sales numbers were pretty robust.

Maria Fiorini Ramirez

Retail sales numbers were stronger than expected, and that shows that consumer are still spending, and I think that is weighing on the market today and it should. But it's not weighing on the Nasdaq, where you're seeing those really good earnings reports. People really regard tech as the place to make money.

Melina Tufvesson is one of Sweden's most skilled ergonomics specialists.

If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.

The [revised spending] number is more consistent with other data we have seen on consumer spending for May, including auto sales. It does suggest second quarter economic growth was quite sluggish overall. But we already knew that. It probably doesn't change the outlook for the second half of the year.

It's a busy week in terms if earnings with three sectors of the technology sector reporting. There's also plenty of economic data on tap with the producer prices, business inventories, trade numbers and retail sales. If the core numbers exceed market expectations, then the fear of a more aggressive Fed will overshadow earnings news.

Next week's retail sales numbers and inflation numbers are going to be some key statistics to give us a little bit more input into where the Fed stands.

Retail results will also be closely watched. One other factor we're watching related to oil is the effect the high prices could have on consumer spending.

Khuram Chaudhry

We're expecting him to mention consumer confidence numbers and consumer spending numbers and to come out and say we need to ensure that consumer confidence is bolstered. We're expecting him to come out and basically let the markets know to expect a cut in March.

These numbers are essentially telling us that retail sales were artificially boosted by zero-percent financing. These numbers are not going to do anything to discourage the Fed from thinking that the balance of risk in the economy is toward weakness.

Yesterday's retail sales numbers weren't fantastic, down 0.9 percent. That was one aspect of the economy that had been growing. And now investors are saying that if the consumer is not holding up then what is actually happening in the U.S.?

Khurma Chaudhry

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