Renewed concern over the ordspråk

Renewed concern over the threat of inflation pushed up long-term mortgage rates, while the most recent Fed statement caused short-term rates to float upwards,

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Minne och Glömska

With still little or no threat of inflation to be found, long-term mortgage rates this week had some breathing room and that allowed rates to drift a little lower,

[Market players said they expected conditions to remain favorable on Wall Street through the upcoming corporate earnings season. Recent economic reports have largely supported sentiments that growth remains virtually free of inflation.] Short-term interest rates should come down. Long-term interest rates should come down, ... There are no signs of inflation.

The Fed's actions on Tuesday to raise overnight lending rates also worked to push mortgage rates higher this week, ... Because the Fed's action impacts short-term rates more than long-term, the largest effect was on ARMS, which rose significantly after the Fed announced its raise.

News from the Fed that they may continue raising short-term rates surprised the market, causing short-term rates to exceed long-term rates.

Next week the policy committee of the Federal Reserve will meet and our expectation is that it will raise short-term rates by a quarter of a percent. However, we also don't see this increase as having a significant impact on long-term mortgage rates.

The risk is people leave with the perception that the Fed is concerned about inflation, and that the lower long-term rates stay, the more they have to push short-term rates.

William Hornbarger

One reason why homeowners may be willing to increase the mortgage rate on their first-lien mortgage is because interest rates on most home-equity lines of credit have been pushed up again as the Fed increased short-term interest rates in January and March, which in turn pushed up the prime rate.

Declines in worker productivity coupled with accelerating labor costs increase the threat of inflation down the road. Inflationary pressure generated by these two factors pushes long-term mortgage rates upward, which is why we have seen rates rise these last two weeks.

Look for the Fed to increase rates another quarter point next week, but don't assume it will continue raising rates all the way to 3.5 percent. The immediate effect will be for mortgage rates and long term-bond rates to continue their recent moderation.

Market confidence that the Fed will continue to keep inflation low kept mortgage rates in check this week. Over the long term, we expect mortgage rates will bounce back and forth a bit, remaining near current levels.

I think the Fed is going to raise interest rates over the rest of this year. I think it will go up at least 100 basis points before the year is out. So the Fed funds rate will rise from about 6 percent to at least 7 percent. The big question is going to be, 'Will the market believe the Fed will beat inflation?' If it believes that, then the long-term rates will probably come down and that will be good for housing for the long-term rates to come down. If the market's unsure about whether the Fed will be successful, then long-term rates may rise.

Franklin Raines

Financial markets see inflation as being well managed by the Fed, and that allows long-term interest rates to remain low, with mortgage rates even falling a little more this week.

However, today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures show a robust growth rate of 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2000 amid signs that inflation appears to be picking up, ... This means there is little doubt the Fed will increase short-term rates at its next FOMC meeting, which is bound to lead to higher mortgage rates in the near term and directly impact the housing economy.

However, today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures show a robust growth rate of 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2000 amid signs that inflation appears to be picking up. This means there is little doubt the Fed will increase short-term rates at its next FOMC meeting, which is bound to lead to higher mortgage rates in the near term and directly impact the housing economy.

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