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It is remarkable how mortgage rates have remained so low for so long,

The bond market isn't exactly sure how fast or slow the economy will expand in the long term and thus bond yields have remained remarkable low. Hence, we expect mortgage rates to remain relatively low for the time being,

The rise in mortgage rates stalled this week primarily because of rising tensions in other parts of the world, causing foreign investors to flee to the security of U.S. Treasuries. Consequently, yields remained mainly unchanged from last week, and so did long-term mortgage rates.

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Although down somewhat, the purchase market continues to benefit from strong job formation and long-term mortgage rates that have remained within range of 40-year lows.

Low mortgage rates and strong house appreciation boosted new and existing home sales as well as refinance activity (in 2001), leading to what was surely a record-breaking year for housing, ... Coming into the new year, there are some signs that the recession may have already run its course but no indications that inflation looms on the horizon. Thus mortgage rates remained almost unchanged this week.

Consumer confidence slipped in February to the lowest reading in three months, but manufacturing activity appears to have strengthened last month. On net, the latest economic news had little effect on mortgage rates this week. Over the past five weeks, mortgage rates have remained within a narrow range of 0.1 percentage points around this week's averages. Our forecast calls for rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to increase about one-quarter of a percentage point by the end of the year.

So far this year, fixed-rate mortgage rates have risen only slightly. Long-term mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were two months ago.

Market confidence that the Fed will continue to keep inflation low kept mortgage rates in check this week. Over the long term, we expect mortgage rates will bounce back and forth a bit, remaining near current levels.

Bond yields have been creeping up on an almost daily basis since the beginning of October, pushing mortgage rates up as they go, ... Inflation remains low, however, and we expect that to continue into 2004 and beyond. And as long as it does, we won't see mortgage rates rising very dramatically.

Taking into consideration the fact that mortgage rates have fallen from the earlier peak at the end of March, we have lowered our forecast for long-term rates. We now expect that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates will likely end up somewhere between 5.9 percent and 6.2 percent by the end of this year.

Quiet financial markets this week left mortgage rates low and almost unchanged from last week's figures. In the meantime, retail sales jumped in January and mortgage applications remained high. These are positive indications that the economy is in recovery mode.

Mortgage interest rates were up this week on news that February employment figures suggested an economic upturn. That news, however, puts a bit of upward pressure on long-term mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates can fluctuate from week to week depending on market conditions and expectations. That is probably what happened this week. Nonetheless, long-term mortgage rates are at about the same low level they were at this time last year. So it isn't surprising that the housing industry continues to thrive.

Over the past five weeks, mortgage rates have remained within a narrow range of 0.1 percentage point around this week's averages.

Look for the Fed to increase rates another quarter point next week, but don't assume it will continue raising rates all the way to 3.5 percent. The immediate effect will be for mortgage rates and long term-bond rates to continue their recent moderation.

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