19 ordspråk av Brendan O'Donovan

Brendan O'Donovan

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Overall, confidence is being pulled down by the squeeze from past tight monetary conditions, and the reality of facing the higher interest bill on our collective debt binge.

Given that the housing market has only recently hit the brakes, confidence may be set to take another battering. The implication is that the outlook for consumer spending over the coming year remains disconcerting.

While the fall in the headline confidence index number appears to be relatively small, the underlying tone to confidence is markedly weaker than the previous quarter.

The slowdown is here with all the subtlety of an uppercut.

Workers are becoming increasingly circumspect. Slowing consumption expenditure suggests that this greater caution is already having an effect.

This is at odds with reported wage growth of 5.4% for the year to December 2005.

The consumer has already slowed markedly. By June, the economy will have experienced negligible growth for a full year.

The economy is in a hole and further easing of monetary conditions is required.

We now expect the first interest rate cut to be October.

But other indicators suggested that consumers think that the good times are coming to an end.

This outcome (0.2 per cent growth) makes it more certain the Reserve Bank has finished lifting rates.

When the housing market goes, there will be little left to sustain the economy in the short-term because it will take time for the lower currency to benefit the economy.

The first of those risks prompted the bank to tighten late last year when the housing market threatened to take off once more. However, it is the risk of a monetary policy-induced slump that looms larger.

Any excuse to sell, when sentiment is running this hot against it.

The deterioration in the trade balance appears to be being arrested -- a lower currency and weaker domestic activity will go a long way to improving the current account situation, but it will take some time to show through.

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