Geopolitical factors will continue to influence prices. The growth in the level of stocks might be put aside by investors as they have done over the past month if more negative news emerges from the Middle East or Venezuela. |
Gold and silver were certainly benefiting from speculative money and that was never going to be sustainable. |
Having more or less traveled together, refined products and crude have become disconnected in recent weeks. |
I think prices are reacting again to the situation in Nigeria, with Eni reporting attacks on its pipeline. |
If you've got declining gas supply and people start burning more oil, then that's one thing, and then you've also got limited supply from Iraq. Suddenly there's a bit of supply news, and a bit of demand news, and it's the combination of those two that's pushing prices up. |
Iran continues to weigh but there is a sense that it's a longer-term situation. I don't see any rash decisions about sanctions, embargoes or cuts in supply. |
People are already worried about supplies for the driving season, even this early on. There's going to be a price reaction if there are any signs of shortages. |
People talk about stocks being relatively high in terms of the five-year averages, but it's not as rosy as those numbers suggest because the size of the economy, and therefore demand, has grown. There's still a perceived tightness in the market. |
Prices have been rarely, if ever, this high. Now is the time to make hay. |
Prices might fall below $60 this week. |
The cost of producing more from mines and processing plants needs to be weighed in terms of costs when boosting production, but no mining company in its right mind would be holding back if it didn't have to. |
The fundamental picture for commodities points to continuing strong demand from consumers. |
The geopolitical situation with Iran and the meeting on Monday...is weighing heavily on the market. |
The push is on for commodities and that's being led by strong demand, but the trick is in picking the end of the cycle. |
The reason being inventories remain strong in the U.S. Prices might fall below $60 this week. |