Our base case is that they (Fed) will go to five percent this quarter and then pause. There is a risk that they could do one more, but we're sticking with five percent. |
People are looking at today's housing data just to see if a drop in the existing number is actually true or not. Some people like to look at housing data as a leading indicator. |
Sentiment is quite positive for the dollar. We are breaking levels so short term there is momentum. Fundamentally we are looking at interest rates. |
Some people like to look at housing data as a leading indicator. |
The market has got short dollars. Yesterday we saw a spike up in euro/dollar. That took into account the bombings in Turkey and things of that nature. That was the big surprise in terms of geopolitics so other news we have had today hasn't really impacted the market significantly. |
To some extent people are paring back positions ahead of a very busy data afternoon. |
Today's data should confirm the overall relatively constructive picture for the U.S. in 2006, we're looking for the Fed to go to 5 percent (on rates). |