90 ordspråk av Bill Dreher

Bill Dreher

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They are admitting they have very cloudy visibility on the very critical holiday season. What might be more significant to investors is that even though they had an admittedly superb second quarter, where are we going from here?

The news we got today was incrementally negative, even for the best operators out there. And clearly this does not bode well for a strong holiday season.

It could have been a lot worse given the expectations. We had lackluster sales through the spring, through summer, terrorist attacks, and a recession, so an increase of 1 or 2 percent is decent. The bigger factor is: What were the margins of those sales?

I really would be surprised if they filed. The part of the equation that is missing in a typical bankruptcy situation is that vendors are not clamping down on them. Vendors are not limiting the distribution of merchandise.

They're trying to create the perception on Wall Street that inventories are in great shape, but how much of that is true sales of merchandise and how much is just accounting?

All the department stores we talked to admit quite clearly it's an unprecedented environment, and they have no direct comparison in being able to plan. It makes their job very, very difficult.

On its own, a comp-store inventory increase of 2-to-5 percent is no big deal. But when you've got comp-store sales declines of closer to 10 percent, you're dealing with a possible 10-point spread, which we believe is going to cause retailers to push the promotional panic button earlier than they would have.

Department stores are already focusing on rejecting shipments from vendors that they ordered. They are also looking to promote inventory they already have in hand. As we get through the season, department stores are going to be brutal in throwing merchandise back to vendors.

We believe that consumers are going to be reluctant to visit shopping malls due to their being a population center and a potential terrorist target. We think some of the department stores in urban centers, particularly those that are American icons, also represent a security risk.

As we get through the season, department stores are going to be brutal in throwing merchandise back to vendors.

It would be considered a non-operating item and really will have a very limited financial impact as far as analysts are concerned,

I think there continues to be a very strong psychological impact with people worried about their own safety and the safety of their families. I don't know what's going on with this flight, but whatever it turns out to be, it adds a significant psychological impact on consumer spending and on how the stocks behave.

As far as core operations, there wasn't much of an upside there.

People are being much more rational with their expenditures. That's why we're seeing these discount price retailers generating strong customer traffic and solid sales increases. And we expect strong earnings increases from them.

Clearly they're the leading broad-line retailer right now. They're going to exit this environment with tremendous market share gain, and hopefully they'll be able to translate sales momentum into robust earnings momentum.

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