19 ordspråk av Bob Schnorbus

Bob Schnorbus

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The pressure to keep incentives high and move them higher will be pretty intense given amount of inventory and the relatively sluggishness we're seeing in sales. It's hard to imagine them going higher, but GM did throw another $1,000 [per vehicle] on its incentive programs the last week.

Simply put, if the '03 had high incentives earlier this year before the clearance started, then the '04 are likely to have it sooner rather than later. The automakers want to give the '04 a trial period to see how they move without incentives. But they won't wait long, maybe only a month.

I don't foresee pricing power [for the automakers] to be returning any time soon. For every plant the Big Three can close, the Japanese or Europeans seem to want to open another one here.

We're sort of seeing an orchestrated slowing of the economy. But what we're not seeing is a slamming on the brakes.

March, in my view, will be interesting. It'll be the first real test of the new chairman.

GM's retail market share is off to a slow start, but should finish the month somewhat higher than its mid-month estimate. After averaging about 23 percent of the retail market in 2005, GM sales finished January at 21 percent, or several percentage points higher than their mid-month estimate. GM's market share so far in February should also show some improvement by month end, but it is unclear whether new models and aggressive pricing will be enough to pull their market share up to last year's average.

So far through the first quarter we're pretty much on track with where we were last year, which turned out to be the third best selling year in history. However, it's still difficult to know if the big incentives that were implemented last year and pushed some monthly sales to near record levels will return and have a significant impact on the remainder of the year.

They might want to (pay more) in the short term to avoid a strike. But if they're spending money now to gloss over the hard decisions that Delphi needs to make, they're only going to compound their problems when their turn comes up.

GM's market share ... should also show some improvement by month end, but it is unclear whether new models and aggressive pricing will be enough to pull their market share up to last year's average.

At least some of the problem is the artificially high sales last year, which is making this year's sales look a lot lower than they should.

We had been projecting an (annual) sales rate of 16 million vehicles in September. If I take out a third of sales for only a two week period, you still come out with an eye-popping 13.3 million sales rate; 13.3 million is about as low as sales ever get.

I think the incentives are going to continue to be necessary. If you don't play the incentive game, you'll lose market share. At least in the first half of the year, even in the best case scenario you're just coming out of the recession, you'll need the support of incentives to maintain sales.

The current incentive levels are not quite as high as they were at the end of last year. In the sense they have been higher, they probably could go up going forward. The price pressure are obviously going to remain very intense. But that said, they're not going to rise dramatically. They're already very good.

I think incentives have been a concern for some time now as they impact margins. With GM pushing hard on incentives to boost their volume, it's pulling everyone kicking and screaming into the game whether they like it or not.

If we get a big kick start to the quarter with a strong April, that could offset us being a bit weaker than we expected to be in the first quarter.

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