The euro has been the victim of an ever widening interest-rate differential to the dollar, a dynamic that has hurt the currency over the past six months as the carry spread now stands at 175 basis points against it. |
The fact that it's actually shrinking gives the dollar a short-term boost. |
The IFO survey hit a 14-year high...receding oil prices and an exchange rate that has stayed below the 1.20 figure for most of the month has buoyed business confidence in the region and bodes well for future prospects of growth in Q1. The news also helps to buttress the expected [European Central Bank] decision to raise rates to 2.5% at the upcoming March 8 meeting. |
The interest rate differential will be materially larger. It will attract a lot of capital into U.S. dollars. |
The market has really begun to believe that we are coming to the close of the zero interest rate policy. |
The market is likely to go into a pre-jobs stall from here on. If payrolls don't perform as the market expects, the euro could gain even further as that would put enormous pressure on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates sooner than expected. |
The market is likely to go into a pre-jobs stall, from here on. If payrolls don't perform as the market expects, the euro could gain even further as that would put enormous pressure on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates sooner than expected. |
The news augurs well for the Japanese economy as confidence is now spreading through the full spectrum of Japanese society. Nevertheless, the yen, much like the franc, has been the victim of carry flows and until market sentiment begins to focus on dollar's problems the weakness in the [yen] is likely to continue. |
The residual impact from the Fed is definitely positive for the dollar. The Fed message is clearly all systems go for 4.25 percent and maybe even 4.5 percent, which will increase the dollar's interest rate differential with other currencies, |
The residual impact from the Fed is definitely positive for the dollar. The Fed message is clearly all systems go for 4.25 percent and maybe even 4.5 percent, which will increase the dollar's interest rate differential with other currencies. |
The yen remains the preferred funding currency for carry trades. The Swiss franc was the alternative and now it's become less attractive. |
This 'man in the street' poll of barbers, taxi drivers and waiters offers some of the best clues to future Japanese consumer spending. |
With little help from monetary officials, yen bulls will now have to look to the rise in the yield of 10-year [Japanese government bonds] above the psychologically important 2% level as a possible trigger for yen strength. |