32 ordspråk av Charles Crane

Charles Crane

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 All of the government statistics have been far less scary than consensus expectations. (Retail sales) were weaker than anticipated and seem to be consistent with the tone.

 Any time you get more than one central banker in a room together the antennas are bound to go up and send a shiver down the market's spine.

 As long as value remains stretched in the more speculative end of technology, anything that blemishes it will prompt an emotional sell-off.

 At some point investors are going to cash in some chips. We are getting close to the end of the quarter, and we have to keep that in mind. The next few weeks will be as choppy as the last few, but I wouldn't expect, barring [unforeseen circumstances], the market to have too much risk.

 Even in an overvalued market, you'll still be able to find good stocks to buy. The market still looks okay.

 Every silver lining has a cloud. All the glasses that seemed half-full 12 months ago look half-empty now.

 I haven't heard any compelling stories to say that this is anything more than bargain hunting. We're in a period of time where investors are going to be concerned about second-quarter earnings, so I wouldn't extrapolate too much from this.

 I think that we are seeing some terrific earnings coming out of the technology sector here in the second quarter. The reality is that earnings are going to remain good in the second half of the year. The question on everybody's mind is are they going to be good enough to meet expectations.

 I think the advice to any investor is try to block out as much macro noise as you can but resist the temptation to think this is a market bottom -- it's a lottery ticket.

 I think they are. I think that the Fed either finished its tightening for this cycle, or it has 25 basis points to go in a couple of weeks. I do not see the Fed tightening further in August.

 I think we could re-write the book a little bit. The other sort of traditional way of looking at the market is that you get a summer rally. And I suspect that we will get a positive bias to this market at some point in time over the next couple of months. However, I do think that you're probably in that quieter period for news and developments in the technology sector.

 If the Fed is on the warpath with an eye to slowing the economy and trying to blunt inflation before it becomes a problem, by slowing the economy the Fed is hoping to address any imbalances between supply and demand, specifically for labor. It feels to me like the market is starting to look beyond the impact of the Fed and setting ourselves up for a second half where the wrestling match will not be between interest rates and valuations but rather between earnings and valuations.

 If there's any doubt about this bull market's stamina, yesterday should have quieted some of those doubts. There was no news, positive or negative, in the marketplace. And yet the Dow rose to an all-time high and the broader market was strong as well.

 Interestingly enough, the housing stocks have been on of the strongest sectors this week. I think what's happened is that these stocks were weak prior to where we are right now in the economic cycle because of concerns about Mr. Greenspan and crew raising rates still further. Those concerns have diminished. They haven't completely gone away, but they certainly have diminished in the last few weeks as we've seen more evidence of a cooler economy. Hence, you're starting to see investors say OK, we're probably cruising in for a soft landing and housing should do well in that.

 Investors you should buy a mix of both old and new economy stocks. I don't think you should stick all of your eggs in any one style basket these days. I would also spread my risk between small stocks and large stocks.


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