Strong December durable goods and the upward revision to November show that perhaps there isn't enough monetary restraint after all. |
The 0.5 (percent rise) is a solid gain. It is a nice rise. |
The bottom line - despite the minus sign in front of the number, (payrolls) are a lot better than we thought. |
The Fed would only pause on the GM news if there were some indication that the news threatens the health of the economy as a whole or the health of the financial markets as a whole. |
The most important thing is that US interest rates are still higher than rates in other reserve currency economies and because of that, there's an advantage to investing here. |
The trade deficit widened to a record in September, as expected. But it wasn't the oil story we were all looking for. Instead, it boils down to Boeing and Airbus, with the European firm holding the cards this time around, |
The trade deficit widened to a record in September, as expected. But it wasn't the oil story we were all looking for. Instead, it boils down to Boeing and Airbus, with the European firm holding the cards this time around. |
The writing seems to be on the wall at this point. Prices are still falling. Meanwhile, the supply continues to rise. |
There's a sense of urgency in construction. If builders have approval for a project, they're going to try to move ahead as quickly as possible. |
They (China) ship a lot of goods to Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart pays for these goods in dollars and manufacturers in China trade these for China's local currency and eventually the dollars work their way into China's central bank. |
This is absolutely key to the economic outlook. A lack of labor-force growth will have to take its toll either on inflation or growth. If you're going to grow you need to get bodies from somewhere. |
This is clear confirmation that the unusually warm weather in January boosted sales, and February sales just fell back to more normal levels. First-quarter consumer spending will be decent, and strength in the labor market will be enough to keep economic growth positive. |
We suspect that if the economy remains as soft as it has been lately, the Fed may very well decide a break is in order somewhere along the way. |
What's striking is how much it looks like the statement from the last three meetings. |
With three negative reports in a row, it's ugly. What we are seeing is two things: it is the storms and a pre-existing condition that came with the end of auto discounting. Part suppliers and their raw materials suppliers benefited from auto sales incentives. |