24 ordspråk av Christopher Thornberg
Christopher Thornberg
Building 200,000 new residences per year, not to mention the current interest in fixing up existing homes in order to spend new housing equity as fast as possible, will tend to drive this (employment).
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By the middle of the year, the cooling real estate market will take a bite out of employment growth everywhere. The question is, can other sectors of the economy pick up the slack? That is a big mystery right now.
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California in 2005 did better than we thought. But my feeling is the employment picture in 2006 is not going to be as good as 2005.
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Housing prices are going up because the wealthy want to live along the coast. That's who's driving prices up.
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It's an irrationally behaving market. It's very difficult to figure out where it is going to go.
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It's business delayed, not business canceled. They make people aware of what's going on, but it doesn't cause any economic impact. It's a pain in the butt, but they get their point across.
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It's people building houses, ... It's people financing the building of houses. It's people working in the stores that are furnishing those houses, and of course, the real estate agents who are making this all happen.
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It's pretty rare for home prices to fall unless you lose a lot of jobs in the local area. What you're really looking at is prices going flat for six or seven years while the fundamentals catch up.
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It's such a contentious issue that nobody wants to deal with it.
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Let's put it this way: We will be in a fragile economy.
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Prices people pay today will be about the same in 2011, maybe 2012.
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That could smooth out the cycle, so to speak. But when you add it all up, it's unclear.
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The forecast for California is mediocre at best; at worst we are liable to dip into another recession, ... at least 50% if not more.
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The markets are starting to cool, and everyone says we may be sliding down the backside of a hill.
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There are some signs that the housing party is ending.
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