35 ordspråk av Darrel Good

Darrel Good

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 South American soybean production prospects will be one of the more important market factors for the next three months.

 That level of use is historically consistent and provides evidence that the size of the 2005 harvest has been accurately estimated.

 The cut in the export projection was a bit larger than expected, but the Census Bureau export report for December, released on Feb. 10, indicated that exports are lagging last year's pace by even more than indicated by the USDA weekly export figures.

 The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.

 The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August, regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.

 The June Grain Stocks report will provide the next opportunity to calculate the rate of domestic corn use. Whether or not these projections are changed in the upcoming report, the market appears to anticipate an eventual increase. Stocks of corn at the end of the current marketing year may be 100 to 125 million bushels less than the current forecast of 2.3 billion bushels.

 The magnitude of the increase will have implications for the total area available to plant the spring-seeded crops such as corn and soybeans. The debate about how rising production costs will affect corn and soybean acreage decisions will continue into the spring of the year.

 The market will closely monitor planting progress, weather and weather forecasts, and weekly crop condition reports as they become available in order to judge 2006 production prospects. These factors will also provide producers with valuable information for gauging new crop pricing opportunities. The lesson of a year ago is that the weekly crop condition ratings are very valuable in judging U.S. average yield prospects.

 The persistence of moderate to severe drought conditions in parts of Illinois, Iowa, and much of the southern Plains increases concerns about yield potential. As usual, forecasts of summer weather conditions are not consistent at this time.

 The price strength has been a little surprising given the magnitude of the surplus in U.S. corn inventories. However, over the past 32 years, the central Illinois cash price has never established a marketing year high in February, suggesting that even higher prices might be expected sometime over the next six months.

 The production intentions of hog producers will be of particular interest. The report will reveal whether producers' modest expansion plans have changed as a result of an extended period of relatively low feed prices.

 The range of $0.505 is at the low end of historical experience. New highs in the spot cash price are certainly possible, particularly if weather concerns persist into the spring.

 The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications -- a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.

 The USDA generates crop production forecasts based on estimates of planted and harvested acreage and two types of yield indications--a farmer-reported survey and objective measurements.

 The USDA may want to consider expanding the scope of the subjective yield surveys it uses in making the forecasts in order to incorporate a wider range of market and industry participants.


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