47 ordspråk av David Seiders

David Seiders

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I was obviously delighted to see this rebound. I think what it tells us is that the housing market is still fundamentally strong.

We've been in a period when a lot of equity has been dropped in our laps, and it has been fairly easy to get to that equity in tax favorable ways. In these circumstances, savings will fall given the strong consumer attitude in America.

There is now accumulating evidence that the housing market peaked somewhere in the third quarter. Our survey of builder confidence, which came out yesterday, was down a lot. . . . It was the biggest drop since the first survey after 9/11.

I basically have a wait-and-see attitude with some healthy suspicion about this report. Either there is something that all of those other reports are not telling us, or this will get revised.

It was impossible to maintain double-digit price inflation like we've seen the past few years.

The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process from unsustainable market conditions in 2005, rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time.

The big risk is: How many investor-owned units are there? How many hidden units will come back into the market?

I call it the hidden supply or inventory. It remains to be seen how big a deal this [investor inventory] is, but that's the big question for housing this year.

We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.

It's been an unprecedented run for the housing sector.

I'm calling 2006 a simmering-down process. It's been one heck of a run.

Some softening of long-term interest rates since early December helped buoy builder attitudes. Consumer confidence has rebounded nicely from post-Katrina lows.

I do have this sort of weakening of the housing sector, but I think it should be thought of as a systematic cooling down process toward sustainable levels of activity and not viewed as kind of a classic housing downswing that's part of an economic cycle leading to a recession.

It's healthy. We do need to have that happen -- gracefully, though. Affordability problems are glaring in the hottest areas. We've reached the point where something's really got to give.

We're certainly seeing a record rate of return in real terms (after factoring out inflation), and there has been very little sign of deceleration. But it is probably inevitable that some of this will slow down.

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