A rate hike is not by any means off the table. The Fed may decide to make an insurance move of one-quarter point in June. |
Demand is still too hot. |
I think it's just really hangover from that. The issue of U.S. interest rates and where we're going has been a pretty important driver for the dollar. |
I think the possibility of intervention is very small. Apart from the surge in the price of oil, Germany doesn't really have an inflation problem. |
It looks like any move by the Bank of Japan away from its zero-interest-rate policy has been pushed out even further into the future. |
The background news is favorable for the euro. The euro zone economy is bouncing back and the U.S. economy is slowing. |
The better economic story and the Fed tightening were the main drivers behind the dollar rally, but that has now run its course. |
The euro will go still lower, but we are unlikely to see a repeat of the wholesale sell-off that occurred last week. |
The euro zone economy is strong. The latest German purchasing managers' survey was at a record high. |
The final up leg does not yet appear complete. |